Fux Populi

Well it's all over bar the corruption. With the bothersome necessity of the election behind them, the new faces in the House of Representatives can get down to the serious business of clawing back the money they had to spend to get there in the first place – and then some. The cash they splurged out during the election campaign was really nothing more than an interest free loan to the poor. Now it will have to be repaid in the form of bribes to the legislators funded out of services that should have been provided for the voters.

Kompas newspaper featured a scathing cartoon a few days ago. A poor boy and his father are standing amid the rubble of a post-earthquake scene. The boy asks, "why isn't your political party setting up aid posts for the victims?". "The election's over now," replies the father.

And the snouts are already nearing the trough. According to the 6 September edition of the Jakarta Globe, the inauguration of the 692 recently elected legislators will cost almost Rp35 billion, or more than Rp50 million per elected official. Of course at only Rp200 per voter, this is only the start. Mind you, it's still enough for 70 modern community health centers....

Phew!

So it's all over. The Constitutional Court decided the voters (and all the polls, before and after the vote) were right and Megawati and Jusuf Kalla and their running mates with dodgy human rights records lost.

True to past form, Megawati's supporters ran riot, starting fires in the street and causing traffic jams as is their wont whenever Mega fails to become president. Strangely Kompas newspaper failed to report the disturbances - it must have cost the PDIP - Mega's party - a fortune to keep that out of the press. Megawati herself is sulking as usual, and has said nothing beyond a grudging statement that she "understood" the verdict, which given her famously limited intellectual capacity is perhaps the most we could hope for. Her running mate Prabowo must be seething. He put so much money into the campaign (or rather his brother did) and it was all for nothing. Of course there is a chance that Prabowo will try again in 2014.

And that's not really an option for Jusuf Kalla, Megawati or Wiranto, who will be 72, 67 and 67 respectively come the next election. Kalla has said he would go back to his home town if he lost, and Mega has implied she wouldn't try again if defeated. Wiranto might have another go, but voters may scorn a two-time loser (hear that Mega?).

Given that Jusuf Kalla stood on a Golkar Party ticket against President SBY, it's possible there will be no seats for that party in SBY's new cabinet, which is presumably why current Coordinating Minister and mega-tycoon Aburizal Bakrie is frantically trying to get the party chairmanship following Kalla's resignation. After all his Epicentrum construction project is in trouble and he needs a key positon to ensure he has enough clout to keep the creditors at bay....

Meanwhile the head of the incompetent General Elections Commission (KPU), Abdul Hafiz Anshary, has refused to resign, saying that to do so would break the law as Law No. 22/2007 says KPU members only step down if they are sick, die or are fired...

The election may be over (even though the fat lady hasn't sung), but politics continues...

NOT FAIR .. I want to be president!

So SBY won, as predicted. Ex general Subianto Prabowo, who owns 90 horses but has been promoting himself a champion of the poor, and who bought himself a vice-presidential ticket from Megawati Sukarnoputri has not stopped sulking since the opinion polls during the campaign showed he and his has-been sidekick were not managing to bribe their way to popularity. Then came the quick count polls on election day that showed SBY with just over 60%, Mega-Prabowo with around 37% and the joke pairing of Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto on 12%. NOT FAIR - the polls have been fixed, cried the disgraced former general. Then the results started trickling in showing similar figures. Prabowo then accused the Gneeral Election Commission of fixing the results to match the quick count polls, claiming that he had a poll showing very different numbers. And finally the General Elections Commission announced the final result: SBY with just over 60%, Mega-Prabowo with around 37% and the joke pairing of Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto on 12%.

In a sulk, Megafatty and Prabowo refused to attend the announcement of the results - at least Kalla and Wiranto turned up for that - and now both pairs of losers plan to contest the result. What does Prabowo want? The results of the poll he commissioned to be used as the official result, or a rerun of the poll? He'd take the first option if he could and does not seem to realize that he'd lose a rerun because the people are not as stupid as he hopes they are, and would rightly punish him for being such a poor loser. He does of course have Megawati to learn from in that regard. Having failed to be crowned president in 1999, she settled for the number two job until she could work with her former enemies in the military to oust poor old Gus Dur and claim the top job just like Daddy. She then did nothing for three years and was defeated in the 2004 presidential election. She didn't accept that result either and refused to speak to, yet alone congratulate her successor.

So despite the statements that all candidates were prepared to accept victory or defeat, the childish actions of the losers show them to be unfit for the jobs they failed to get. Phew!

Putting the Boot in

The election campaign is well underway, and dear me! What a bore. The problem is that all the candidates are terrified of saying anything they could be attacked for, so are sticking to safe ground. The first presidential debate was a classic example. Former (failed) president Megawati actually did rather well, saying more in one evening than she said during her who pitiful two years in the palace. Anyway after a two-minute waffle about overseas workers, President SBY actually said he "agreed with her 200%". Hmm. Hardly a war of words. Incidentally Megawati seems to be running the same campaign as her (failed) attempt to get reelected in 2004 when she went on and on about how she was the prettiest candidate (like this time, the others were all men you see). If she makes the joke ONE MORE TIME, Pemiloopy is going to feature an unkind jibe about the size of her behind.

Anyway, in the absence of any real debates, thank Dawkins there is some entertainment to be had. It's known as "black campaigning", and it's much more fun that the ordinary kind. For example, because they are too frightened to attack SBY directly because he is too popular (yes, I know how weird that sounds), his opponents have decided his mild-mannered running mate Boediono is fair game. So what have they come up with? "He's a neoliberal!" Gosh. What's that then? Well, it's something to do with the free market (you know, not subsidizing fuel for rich car owners or trying to buck the market). Presumably they sat down and thought this one up together. What has Boediono done to deserve this heinous insult? Not sure, but it seems he got a PhD from the Wharton School of Economics, which is a FOREIGN place. Even then, it doesn't add up. In the first place, when he was finance minister, Boediono was responsible for paying off lots of Indonesia's foreign debt (accumulated due to the incompetence of Kalla's Golkar Party) and twice substantially reduced inflation. And he helped invent something called Pancasila Economics, which is based on the village system and is aimed at reducing inequality.

In more "black campaigning":

• Boediono's wife is not really a Muslim, and may even be a Catholic (too silly for words)
• Megawati sold off national assets when she was president (er... true, but necessary)
• Both SBY and his running mate are Javanese (er... true but so what)
• Wiranto was involved in human rights violations in the past (see above)
• Prabowo has dual-nationality (not true, and why on earth would it matter?)
• SBY and Boediono's wives don't wear the Islamic headscarf (true, but so what?)
• Prabowo is immensely rich, but is proposing a "people's economy (OK, that one's true)
• Kalla's companies would become nepotistic and corrupt if he is elected (become?)
• Prabowo was involved in human rights violations in the past (duh...)
• SBY is a ditherer who finds it hard to make decisions (true)

You see. Much more fun that agreeing with each other 200%

The Things They Say (3)

Ex-general Wiranto guested on a chat show last week on Metro TV, a station owned by Suarya Paloh, a key figure in the Golkar Party (the vehicle of president Suharto during Indonesia's New Order military dictatorship). Wiranto is running for vice-president, despite saying he only wanted the top job (see Number Ones Only Please) - the presidential candidate is chair of er... the Golkar Party. Well, that explains the fawning and sycophantic nature of the interviewer.

Anyway, Wiranto was asked how he came to have so much money. "I was surprised to find myself so rich", he purred. Apparently he scraped together Rp81 billion (around US$8 million) from his meager salary as Army commander to buy a few parcels of land, and inflation did the rest.

Anyway, on to the thorny question of human rights. "Are you a human rights abuser?" smiled Andy F. Noya, the friendly interviewer. Shameful as it is to report, the audience laughed!! Perhaps there is something funny about murdering people, burning their homes, pouring concrete in irrigation ditches and herding thousands of people across the border that had escaped me...

Anyway, back to the ex-general. After saying that claims made at the time of his unsuccessful 2004 presidential bid were no longer valid, he had the bare-faced cheek to claim he had never been indicted. Hmmm. Let's have a look at The Guardian dated 25 February 2003. In case any Wiranto fans are too lazy to use their right fingers for anything other than shooting unarmed civilians, allow me to reproduce the headline here:

UN indicts general for East Timor crimes
Clear enough. That makes the above quite a lie. Murdering pig.

The Nasty Party

So it's getting dirty already. Disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto, who had to settle for the running for the number two job after Indonesia refused to vote for him in large enough numbers, is starting to show his true colours. Aside from a wish list of unimaginable expense (lots of money for all those those poor people who grow the rice he eats and presumably clean out the stables inhabited by his 90 horses), he is playing the bash-the-foreigners card. Aside from his thinly-veiled attacks on the ethnic Chinese in his TV ads (also foreigners in his eyes - he can't stand them either), he and Mega have made attacks on the influence of foreign culture - which they (actually Mega doesn't say much) say is responsible for Indonesians' ignorance of traditional culture etc etc.

So if he hates foreigners so much, two questions spring to mind. Why are he and Mega using US consulting firm Rob Allyn to boost their image (although their team issued embarrassed half denials to detik.com); and why (yet alone how) does he have US$7,572,916 to his name, according to the report he made of his assets to the General Election Commission? Oh, and Rp1,579,376,223,359 of assets in Indonesian currency, reports Kompas (30/5/09). That should come in handy if he either wants to pay off the voters or buy troublemakers if the vote doesn't go his way.

In other dirty tricks: because of his appalling human rights record, Prabowo can't even get a US visa, and the civilized world presumably views the prospect of his election with horror. Prabowo is absolutely desperate for foreign politicians to attack him so he can portray himself as a victim. Sensibly nobody is falling into that trap, so there's nothing for it but to invent news of intervention by the wily and perfidious whiteys. Hence the story in detik.com today in which Manullang, a former director of Indonesian Military Intelligence (the organization that murdered Indonesian human rights activist Munir), claims that US intelligence are actively trying to ensure a victory for incumbent President SBY. If the foreigners like him, he must be BAAAAAD, goes the theory.

Given Prabowo's past - he has been accused of attempting a coup d'etat in 1998 as well as being behind the anti-Chinese riots in Jakarta earlier the same year, and has admitted kidnapping democracy activists (who were on the same side as Megawati at the time...) - if he is already playing dirty, what will he do if he loses? Or does he hope to gain power without ever gaining a parliamentary majority as another former military man did in 1933?

No Islam Please, We're Nationalists

Indonesia's electors seem to have tired of Islamic parties. In the recent legislative elections, the major Islamic parties won just under 30% of the vote, and 164 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2004, they won over 40% of the vote and 231 seats. And in the forthcoming presidential election, there are no candidates from Islamic parties - defying the conventional wisdom (as applied in 2004) that a Nationalist-Islamist mix is best.

Voters are apparently disillusioned with the Islamists for two reasons. Firstly, despite their religious credentials, they have turned out to be no less susceptible to the temptations of corruption and the flesh - or both in at least one case. Secondly in those areas where they control the local legislature, they have shown a disturbing tendency to impose variants of Islamic Shariah law. On a national level, they pushed for the Pornography Law, which threatens to outlaw harmless activities such as Balinese women wearing little above the waist and everybody doing yoga. However President SBY supported this law in the hope of gaining support from the Islamist parties and their voters. Oops. The latest demonstration of the odd obsessions of the Islamic authorities here is their ongoing debate about whether to rule against Facebook on the grounds of its immoral pictures of women, which may corrupt the morals of young men in Islamic Boarding schools (who by all accounts access as much porn as they can whenever they get their hands on an internet-equipped computer).

Although SBY was at pains to point out the Islamic faith of his running mate in the lavish declaration of his candidacy, partly to pacify the Islamic parties in his coalition who were sulking because one of their number was not recruited for the number two job, nobody seems to mind. We can expect to see high-profile visits to mosques and other demonstrations of piety by candidates (by the way, aren't crimes against humanity against Islamic law?), but it looks as if politics and Islam are going their separate ways. Good.

Counting...Counting...Gone!

Beginning shortly after the polls closed on April 9, the General Elections Commission's (KPU) website was updated with the latest votes counted for each party nationally. News portal detik.com had their own count, which displayed pretty much the same numbers. For a few days the KPU website was updated almost hourly. Then on April 29 1t 12:39pm the site announced that the updates had stopped with 14,739,196 votes counted . Shortly after that the special website went offline. Then a few days later, on May 5, the detik.com site resumed, with 80,231,512 votes counted. Since than the total has climbed to 100,028, 285 in fits and starts, with an update or two every day.

Meanwhile, on May 4, a new section of the KPU website appeared with detailed election results from the individual electoral regions, of which there are 77. Strangely the results for Aceh showed a vote of 0 for all six of the local parties (Aceh is the only province where local parties were allowed to stand). Pemiloopy was able to save the results as they appeared - the totals were downloadable in PDF. However once the results from three of East Java's 11 electoral regions posted, the updating stopped, and that section of the KPU website has also disappeared. East Java is the province where there were widespread allegations of fraud in the gubernatorial election last year. It is also the stronghold of the divided National Awakening Party and a region where the Gerindra vehicle of disgraced former general Prabowo was hoping to trick farmers into voting for him.

So, with one day remaining for the KPU to announce the final result, as required by Article 201 (1) of the Law No. 10/2008, the earlier transparency has gone, and it is by no means certain the increasingly incompetent Commission will even get this right. We shall see tomorrow...

STOP PRESS: The KPU has said, nay confirmed, that the final results of the elections will be announced at 7:30PM on Saturday May 9, in line with the legally mandated schedule, according to detik.com. Of the 77 electoral regions, the counting has been finished in all but two. The invitations have gone out and all parties will be present for the big event at the KPU building.

All Stop. Full Steam Ahead

For some reason the counting of the legislative election results seems to have stopped completely. At least that's according the the General Election Commission (KPU) website, where the total cotes counted has been stuck at 14,484,189 for 24 hours. Have they given up trying to meet the deadline, or are they just not telling anyone what they're up to? On top of all the cockups by the KPU (chaos over the electoral roll, eligible voters not listed and therefore disenfranchised, the campaign schedule having to be changed after the campaign was already underway, ballot papers sent to the wrong provinces), this latest oddity is hardly likely to inspire confidence.

Meanwhile former president Megawati Sukarnoputri and her two new friends, the Hanura Party's former general (and indicted war criminal) Wiranto and former general (and human rights abuser) Prabowo are toying with the idea of boycotting the presidential election - not because they don't think they can won - perish the though! No, it's dur to the widepsread "fraud" in the election. Prabowo even went so far as to claim that instead of his apparent measly 5% of the vote, the fact that so many of his supporters were disenfranchised means that he actually shoul have 10%. OK, but in that case, unless the KPU is far cleverer than it looks, all parties would have suffered equally, so their vote percentages should be doubles as well. That should lead to a turnout of well over 100% - rather like the elections Indonesia's New Order used to run (with the support of people like Wiranto and Prabowo).

And poor old Jusuf Kalla still doesn't know what to do. President SBY doesn't want him, and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) even threatened to have nothing to do with his Democratic Party if he runs with JK. So Kalla is frantically looking for enough politcal dregs to scrape together to get enough votes to nominate himself. Him and Megawati running against each other should see SBY safely back to the Palace. This is assuming the boycott doesn't happen - and it does seem unlikely that the parties will all put self-interest last and support it. If the boycott did work, it would mean the presidential election would be delayed until the president issued a decree in lieu of law to change the preconditions for nomination, and a long delay could see Indonesia without a president until it's all sorted out.

Assuming Mega is too stubborn to stand down and she and Kalla each find somebody seen as suitable to run with, the presidential election may go to a run off, presenting the KPU with two more chances to make a dog's dinner of things. Time, or perhaps money, will tell.

Jakarta, we have a problem

As of 11pm today, a week after election day, the General Elections Commission (KPU) has counted eleven million votes from 57,792 polling stations. While this may sound like a splendid effort, these figures are worrying. The problem is that there are 171,265,442 Indonesians who have the right to vote and on election day there were a total of 519,920 polling stations, each with one ballot box (Kompas, 11/4/09 page 2). Each polling station caters for a maximum of 500 voters, as laid down in Article 150 of Indonesia's Law No.10/2008. If the turnout was 100%, then 10% of ballot boxes counted would mean 10% of the maximum possible votes counted. However, while 11.1% of ballot boxes have been opened, the votes counted only amount to 6.5% of the electorate. Assuming this ratio remains consistent, this means the turnout will only be 58.4%. This means something has gone wrong somewhere. Are Indonesians really that disillusioned, or did the KPU make such a mess of the election that millions of Indonesians were deprived of their right to vote? Either way, expect complaints from the (bad) losers.

Meanwhile the count goes on, but the rate the votes are being counted at is actually slowing (as shown in the graph). Tracking the results coming in today at the official General Election Website, at the current rate, they'll need another 10 weeks to finish the job.

So it looks like the KPU are pretty incompetent. Even the president has starting blaming them. However, the 64 million Rupiah question is: was the "incompetence" systematic (favoring one particular party, such as the president's Democratic Party for instance...) or was it just bog-standard incompetence. Indonesia's voters need to know...

The Things They Say (2)

• Charman of the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDIP) Advisory Council, and husband of party leader Megawati, Taufik Kiemas:"Hanura is definite, Gerindra is definite, PPP is also definite [for a coalition with the PDIP]"

• United Development Party (PPP) secretary general Irgan Chairul Mahfiz: "The figure of SBY is more dominant and it would be very naive if the PPP did not see the tendency of the people to support SBY"

Well, the PPP - never a party to put a bargepole between itself and opportunism - seems uncertain which sinking ship to desert. It is doing fairly well so far in the count, and seems to be keeping its options open. We shall see.

Meanwhile, 4.5 million votes counted so far...

Coalitionism

You've got to feel sorry for Vice-president and Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla. He's got a tough choice to make. It's looking like Golkar won't make the 20% of votes needed to be able to nominate their presidential candidate, i.e. Jusuf Kalla. So he has two options: try and form a coalition with one or more other parties, or crawl back to President SBY and ask if he can be VP again (not president, and he is 68). The thing is, the first option means he may end up with nothing, and the second means he will almost certainly get his old job back. So what's it to be, JK?

The other parties are also in a bit of a fix. Traditionally (well OK, in 2004) the thinking is that the president and vice-president should be a nationalist-Islam pairing. So where does Megawati's PDI-P look for a VP to keep Mega company? Golkar is nationalist, so are Gerindra and Hanura. The best bet for Golkar and the PDI-P would be the squeaky clean Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), but unless President SBY is a complete fool, he will team up with the PKS (and run on an anti-corruption ticket). Among the Islamist parties, there is the United Development Party (PPP), but it's in decline and is looking increasingly tired and, frankly, old hat. What about the National Awakening Party (now without Mega's enemy Gus Dur)? The combined PDIP and PKB vote might just be enough to make the 20% , but both are very Java-centric parties, and may not carry the non-Java vote. And the National Mandate Party (PAN) has such an elitist and over-critical image that any pairing with Golkar (the New Order party that PAN opposed during the reform euphoria of the late 90s) or the PDI-P would be such breathtaking opportunism that Indonesia's voters might well see right through them.

So where does that leave Gerindra and Hanura? Leaving aside the fact that Indonesians may not want a war criminal as president, both parties may find themselves out of friends, or fighting tooth and nail (party leaders Prabowo and Wiranto hate each other) to attract enough parties to cobble together a coalition.

Whatever happens, there will be lots of humbug, hypocrisy, legal challenges to the election result and squabbles over the few months until the presidential election. Watch this space.

Calculating Politicians

The results are trickling in. Unless the General Elections Commission (KPU) gets a move on, at the current rate of counting, and allowing for a 72% turnout, the final results will be announced in late January 2011. Let's hope the counting rate improves by a factor of 21 so the KPU can meet the 30-day deadline. However the fact that their online results page has been showing the same vote tally since 9:35am on 10 April is perhaps not a good sign. Neither is the fact that the KPU homepage hasn't been updated since the day before polling day. And they haven't managed to organize the service whereby interested voters can obtain the latest results by sending an SMS text message to a special phone number. In fact it's only down to the heroic efforts of news portal detik.com that Pemiloopy is able to track the count at all. Well done guys.

Of course fans of detik.com are able to follow the count, and all the TV stations have the numbers scrolling along the bottom of the screen, but might Pemiloopy venture to point out that the national percentages are not the key figures? To show what I mean, take the "quick count" results from a previous post. If people had voted in these proportions across the nation (yes I know - they didn't), the two parties headed by the ex-generals with dubious human rights records, Gerindra and Hanura, would win no seats at all, despite garnering 4.4% and 3.6% of the vote respectively. Indonesia's voting system, which brilliantly combines the district and proportional representation systems in a way that ensures the disadvantages of both dominate, means that they would win no seats in the first round of counting (where seats are awarded based on the number of seats in the electoral regions), and none in the second (seats awarded on the remainder of the votes). In East Java, where Gerindra fondly hopes to pick up votes from disillusioned fans of Gus Dur, 4.4% (or 5.1% of the valid vote) is not enough to pick up any first round seats, and is only just enough to be in with a chance of second round seats.

So the intriguing possibility now is that despite all that money, Prabowo and Wiranto may have blown it after all.

And the winner is... Golput!

The polls have closed and the count is presumably underway. According to the official General Elections Commission (KPU) website, everybody is still on zero votes, but these things take time.

There is a chance that abstentions, known here in Indonesia as "Golput", may be the overall winner. Polling stations Pemiloopy saw today had piles of unused ballot papers, and there were many people walking around Jakarta without the indelible ink on their pinkies, which is used to stop people voting twice. The fact that this is a long weekend probably further reduced participation: train tickets are sold out and it was almost impossible to get flights to Bali. And many people may have decided either to stay in bed recovering from watching the football last night. It remains to be seen whether voter confusion and apathy mean a record low turnout.

Anyway, four polling organizations have released the results of their "quick count surveys. The average of the four polls:

• Democratic Party: 24.66%
• Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle (PDIP): 14.96%
• Golkar: 14.04%
• Prosperous Justice Party (PKS): 7.64%
• National Mandate Party (PAN): 5.77%
• National Awakening Party (PKB): 5.37%
• United Development Party (PPP): 5.22%
• Gerindra: 4.4%
• Hanura: 3.56%
• Everybody else - less than the 2.5% threshold

PAN seems to be doing surprisingly well, as does the PKS, but I still think they may end up lower in the rankings as polls may be underestimating the contribution of the less educated isolated voters. We shall see...

Predictions

I suppose I should put my money where my keyboard is and come up with some sort of prediction of what will happen as a result of the legislative election today.

I think incumbent President SBY's Democratic Party will come out with the largest share of the vote, largely because of the incumbent advantage. They've consistently had around 20% of the vote in the unrigged opinion polls, and this would translate into around a third of seats in the House of Representatives. That's enough to qualify for the right to nominate SBY as president again. I reckon a coalition with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) is on the cards for the presidential vote - possibly with Tifatul Sembiring as the running mate.

I think Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and VP Jusuf Kalla's Golkar will each get about 15% - and just under a quarter of the seats in the House, meaning they'll have to join forces (but both want to be president!) or team up with an Islamist party each for the presidential race - possibly the United Development Party (PPP), who may still come fourth despite an incredibly low profile campaign.

There may well be enough National Awakening Party (PKB) voters in East Java to win fifth place for the party, followed by the PKS in the vote tally.

Then there are the vehicles of dubious former generals Prabowo (Gerindra Party) and Wiranto (Hanura Party). Due to the sheer flood of glossy TV ads with promises of cash to farmers and fisherman and the not-so-subtle playing of the anti-ethnic-Chinese card, Gerindra may come in seventh, or possibly fifth or sixth on name recognition alone, given the confusing array of 38 parties on the king-sized ballot paper. As for Hanura, well their recent ads have focused less on policies and more on how to find the party symbol on the ballot paper, so their being first on the list may help them to eighth place. They may still lose out to the fading National Mandate Party (PAN) though.

All in all, Pemiloopy beleives that only eight, or possibly nine, parties will pass the threshold of 2.5% necessary to be awarded seats in the legislature. Then the fun and games will really start...

Election Watchout!

The day has come! The polls open in 6 hours.

There are a number of things that need to be watched for in the coming weeks:

• East Java: There are many problems with the voter list (electoral roll), especially in East Java, where the gubernatorial election revealed oddities such as underage and deceased voters on the register, as well as many names with the same demographic code number. Coincidentally (or not), East Java is the electoral base of the National Awakening Party (PKB) which has been split asunder such that party founder Gus Dur has urged his supporters not to vote PKB but to support the Gerindra Party of disgraced former general Prabowo. Watch out for shenanigans there - especially if Gerindra fails to win enough votes to win seats in the legislature. Also treat any massive Gerindra vote with skepticism.

• Money Politics: The General Elections Commission briefly interpreted the Election Law on spending limits as only applying to individual donations, before hastily revoking its decree. The richest party is er.. Gerindra, which is bankrolled by Prabowo's older brother. Parties have to submit their accounts within 15 days after April 9.

• Aceh: The Indonesian military have been giving the Aceh Party a hard time since the army's humiliating withdrawal from Aceh. If the less-than-saintly former rebels look like doing too well, there could be violence.

• Hanura: The party of indicted human rights violator ex general Wiranto is predicted to win only 1.3% of the national vote according to a poll in Kompas newspaper (30/3/09). That would mean no seats for the party, and possible an end to his latest presidential race. If that looks likely, watch out for dirty tricks in eastern Indonesia, away from the media. Conversely, if the party does suspiciously well (although Pemiloopy thinks it will do better than the polling suggests as Hanura ran a grassroots campaign out of the reach of pollsters), that may mean something is amiss.

• Eastern Indonesia: Bastion of Golkar, possibly under threat from incumbent President SBY's Democratic Party. Far from the gaze of the national media, who knows what will happen, given the rift between SBY and his VP, Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla.

• The count: Funny things have happened in previous elections with the percentages and totals as the votes have come in. Watch this blog for a blow-by-blow account of the latest numbers (assuming the Internet and phone network doesn't collapse under the strain).

• Old faces vanishing: Thanks to the 2.5% electoral threshold, don't be surprised if some of the older (relatively speaking) parties have their last hurrah this time round. Vulnerable parties include the Crescent Star Party (PBB), which has only ever been successful in the leader's home province, and possibly even the National Mandate Party (PAN) of reform figure Amien Rais, which may be about to go the way of the 1950s Indonesian Socialist Party due to its elitist nature and the recent split that has seen the National Sun Party break away.

A Decoupled Campaign

Well the public phase of the campaign is now over. For the three days prior to polling day on 9 April there is a "quiet period" - posters and flags are supposed to be removed.

Even more than 5 years ago, this was a campaign that showed the distance between the parties and their voters. In fact there were really two entirely separate campaigns: a minor one about politics and a more important one about money.

The political campaign took the form of TV debates and earnest articles in the more highbrow press where the few issues dividing parties were aired between commercials and among the ads. This was about the only time anybody took the parties seriously. The bulk of the campaign was frankly devoted to taking advantage of them.

The money side of the campaign was alluded to in an earlier post. On a popular TV Indonesian show today a reporter was speaking to people at campaign rallies. Not only did people freely admit they had only come for the money (R20,000 claimed one mother) and had attended many rallies but were still confused who to vote for, but many attendees could not even name the party whose T-shirts they were wearing. This included people wearing the yellow of the Golkar Party. Other opportunities to make money were there for the celebs. The Gerindra Party of disgraced former general Prabowo had a singing trio modestly called the 3 Divas, which includes Krisdayanti - who is more often seen on TV advertising vitamin supplements and laxatives. Meanwhile the group Radja performed rallies for four different parties.

The media also had a laugh at the politician's expense. on a TV show called Kontes de Parpol, the hosts abused the party representatives present in the studio while making money from an SMS text opinion poll.

The campaign has been underway for more than two weeks, and many people still have no idea about what the parties stand for. It seems likely they will vote for familiar faces because the people (but not the parties?) at least realize that they can get away with not voting for the parties whose money they took. Which means the Democratic Party of incumbent President SBY should be OK. It remains to be seen how many people will have fallen for the flood of Gerindra ads paid for by Prabowo's billionaire brother...

The Things They Say (1)

Wiranto, Secretary General of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) speaking on 22 March 2009 in Surabaya urged his supporters not to be tricked by promises of money in the 2009 elections, according to Antara news agency. He then went on to er.. offer promise of change.

Kompas newspaper, 27 March 2009, p25: "Two Hanura candidates jailed for seven months", for giving out food parcels to 100 people on 14 February. Well, it wasn't money......

Vox taxi

It's all very well following the opinion polls, but given the Democratic Party's monotonous lead (around 24% of the vote, 7-10% ahead of Megawati's PDIP) it's just not very interesting - especially as the other parties seem to have given up paying for polls that show them in out in front.

It is a well-known fact that if you want to know what's going on in a city, the best way is to jump in a taxi and ask. Jakarta is no exception and its taxi drivers are a savvy lot. There seems to be a consensus (OK - that's a bit of a stretch and not exactly a statistically accurate sample) that President SBY will and should win. "Just let him continue" is a typical comment. What about Megawati, and her "party of the little people"? Ignoring the usual girth-related comments, the most oft-heard sentiment is that she did absolutely nothing when she was president last time, and doesn't deserve another chance. In fact, they say, all she is doing now is criticizing. So what about Gerindra, the high-spending party vehicle of disgraced former general Prabowo? "He was behind the disappearances of students in '98" said one driver, showing that political memories are long here... Incidentally, this he why he was dishonorably discharged from the military.

So, if it was down to the taxi drivers, the election would be a foregone conclusion for SBY. Hmmm. That's what the polls say anyway.

And speaking of Megawati and her criticizing (many Indonesians don't like wingeing politicians, which is why Amien Rais has vanished without trace), in a desperate attempt to publicly disagree with something the government is doing, last week she launched a bizarre attack on the cash handouts being given to the poor to offset the reductions in fuel subsidies, claiming it was turning the people into beggars. In a hasty shift, the party is now running TV ads showing its workers in a village ensuring that the cash is going to the right people. Oh the irony. Not known for expressing, or indeed having, any opinions, as soon as she opens her mouth she produces the biggest gaffe of the campaign so far. That'll teach her to try and be smart. Perhaps she should have consulted with a taxi driver before opening her mouth.

Money, Money, Money

The campaign is underway. Rather a damp squib so far. No traffic congestion (well, a bit today as President SBY's Democratic Party was in action at Jakarta's main stadium).

People seem to be thoroughly unimpressed by the whole thing. On March 18, Kompas newspaper carried a report from the city of Yogyakarta, Central Java, where one neighborhood has declared itself a campaign-free zone, with no flags, banners or posters in sight. Apparently the biggest problem was not complaints from the party faithful, but protests from unemployed youths tempted by the money on offer.

Money? Yes. Apparently parties pay Rp20,000 (about US$1.60) per flag put up. In Jakarta, the going rate for a banner is Rp150,000 per month. But it's not only flags and banners that bring in the cash. It's long been established practice here to pay people to attend party rallies during the campaign. But while in previous elections, lunch, a T-shirt and Rp10,000 would bring out the masses, all parties are paying at least Rp50,000 this year. Gerindra, the party vehicle of disgraced former general former (i.e. discharged) general Prabowo Subianto is paying an eye-popping Rp100,000 (US$8.30, or 9 packs of cigarettes here) per head. This may not sound much, but the minimum wage in Jakarta is only just over Rp1 million per month. A Gerindra rally with 10,000 people would cost the party Rp1 billion, or some 7% of its election fund.

So, it may be that the parties are saving the big campaigning (and spending) for their second and final allocated day of the campaign. With 38 parties each paying at least Rp50,000, as long as they are prepared to move between locations, millions of Indonesia's unemployed could make a tidy packet this month. Might even help ease the recession.

And given that people seem to be getting more cynical about the parties and their extravagant promises, there is of course no guarantee they'll actually vote for the parties whose money they take. The people might just have the last laugh.........

Ready, Steady, Campaign!

It all starts tomorrow! The election campaign proper! There is a list of places where parties are allowed to campaign, and anther list of places where they are not. The no-go list includes the Hotel Indonesia roundabout - a traditional location for the my-party-has-more-followers-than-yours rallies. Of course it's all very well to ban gatherings outside the approved venues, but the people who are paid to attend - oops - I mean the devoted party followers, can hardly be expected to arrive one-by-one and wait in orderly lines for admission. This means there will be major congestion near campaign venues (for the major parties anyway - in fact it would be very embarrassing if there was none).

Despite a last minute balls-up with the campaign schedule, once again the General Elections Commission has arranged things so parties who hate each other do not campaign on the same day. Which is another way of telling any party scheduled on the same day as one of the biggies that they don't have much of a chance.

With apologies for the Jakarta-centric nature of this post, here is the schedule for the capital for the major parties (everybody gets two turns):

Tuesday 17 March: Golkar (traditionally generous to attendees)
Wednesday 18 March: United Development Party (PPP) (if anybody remembers who they are)
Friday 20 March: Democrat Party (SBY's lot) (will have to be very discreet if it pays people to attend) & Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) (the holier-than-thou lot, big in the capital)
Saturday 21 March: National Mandate Party (PAN) (if anybody comes...) & Gerindra (with Rp15 billion in funds, they have enough to hand out food, cash and T-shirts to all comers)
Tuesday 24 March: Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) (another rentacrowd party)
Thursday 26 March: Hanura (Wiranto) (also rich, needs to be seen as more popular than the hated Gerindra, so may be generous with the food and cash) & Democrat Party (again)
Saturday 28 March: Golkar (last chance to show they are loved by the people)
Monday 30 March: Prosperous Justice Party (probably will try to turn Jakarta white by bussing in supporters and causing traffic chaos)
Tuesday 31 March: National Mandate Party (farewell fling) & Gerindra (probably still lots of money left - expect a big show)
Saturday 4 April: PDI-P (Could be a biggie as nobody is at work - not that it makes much diference to the unemployed)

How to say nothing in 76 words...

Now that Jusuf Kalla has decided he simply can't wait until 2014 for a crack at the presidency, he has two problems: 1) how to ensure Golkar (which presumably will nominate him) gets enough votes (20%) in the legislative elections and 2) who to choose as his running mate.

Perhaps in an effort to tackle the first difficulty while overlooking the second, Vice-president Jusuf Kalla met ex-president (and ex-VP) (and rival presidential candidate) Megawati Sukarnoputri on 12 March at her place. They were photographed holding up important-looking copies of the "Two Figures Agreement". So what specific points did these political heavyweights come up with. Er... none.

Here is what they agreed (stifle those yawns):
1. To build a strong government to bring about the development of the nation and prosperity for the people.
2. The strengthen the presidential system of government in accordance with the mandate of the 1945 Constitution that has a strong basis of support in the House of Representatives.
3. To strengthen the economic system to implement an economic program that is sovereign, independent and is oriented towards the interests of the people.
4. To bring about closer political communication between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the Golkar Party as a manifestation of the responsibility of the two largest parties in the 1999 and 2004 elections.
5. To ensure the successful organization of the 2009 elections that are honest, fair, direct, general, free and secret, as well as safe and prestigious.

Hmmm. So 76 words (OK, some numbers) of nothing. Slightly change the wording of point 4 and this could have been written by any two political parties in Indonesia, past or present (including the banned Communist Party of Indonesia). Or change the Indonesia-specific references and the Democrats and Republicans in the US or the Conservatives and Labour in the UK or even Zanu-PF and the MDC in Zimbabwe could produce an almost identical document.

So what's the point? In the words of an SMS contributor in Kompas newspaper on 14 March, "It's impossible for Megawati to be on the same ticket as Jusuf Kalla! Unless Indonesia has two presidents. Which of them wants to be vice-president?"

There is no way Megawati will take the number two job, and why on earth would Jusuf Kalla abandon current president SBY, for the VP job with somebody else who is less likely to win. Surely he's not THAT stupid..

Or could this be incredibly short term political expediency so both parties win lots of seats in the legislature and then quietly forget their alliance? Any possible answers to this puzzle gratefully accepted...

Numbers...numbers...

Some surprising numbers have been emerging over the last couple of weeks. And they are important numbers: people and money (in that order).

The General Elections Commission (KPU) is in a bit of a tizzy because the number of voters doesn't add up. The KPU in the centre and its regional offshoots have come up with different totals for the number of voters. In some cases, according to Kompas (19 February 2009) these differences are significant. For example the KPU in Jakarta has decreed that there are 29,294,127 voters in East Java, while that province's KPU says there are 29,524,214 , a difference of 230,087. Meanwhile the figures for Papua are 2,190,516 according to the centre and 2,063,087 according to the Papua KPU, an alarming difference of 5.82%. Clearly these numbers are big enough to make a difference as to who gets elected and who doesn't. Nobody seems quite sure what to do about this. Tempo magazine (3 March 2009) reported that among the problems are duplication of names, nonsensical distribution of genders and fictitious voters. And according to the list for one province, there is a family with more more than 100 members.

And now there are some even more amazing numbers. All parties are obliged to report their assets before the campaign proper starts. Most of them seem to have done, although the election oversight body has accused Megawati's Indonesian Democratic of Struggle of not coming clean. The party's central office chairman Tjahjo Kumolo says this is a lie, an attempt to wreck the image of the party. He doesn't say who by... Anyway, he told detik.com, the party has already provided its account number and initial balance, just not the details yet.

Back to the numbers. Gerindra, the party set up as a vehicle for disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto to grab the presidency, has managed to accumulate Rp15.694 billion. Not bad for a new party - in fact enough to give almost Rp100 to every single voter. At least it explains the non-stop TV ads. In at number two is the Democratic Party, the vehicle established by current president (and former general) Yudhoyono to grab the presidency, with Rp7.027 trillion. And in third place is the People's Conscience Party, a vehicle established by indicted war criminal and former general Wiranto to grab the presidency, with just over Rp5 billion.

You've got to feel sorry for the impoverished also-rans. In last place is the Functional Party of Struggle (these Indonesian party names don't translate very well do they?) with a paltry Rp1,000,000. Just ahead is the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party, with Rp1.38 million. How strange: the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party was also established by a general. Obviously some ex-generals are better at "attracting" funds than others...

The Usual Delays...

Once again the Indonesian media is wringing its hands in despair because of delays in the election preparations. With long-winded moans about unprinted, yet alone distributed, ballot papers and despair over uninformed voters, they fill column inches with their wails of despair. Again.

A time traveler landing in Indonesia could be forgiven for thinking that the above intro was about the 2004 or 1999 elections, not 2009. In an editorial in March 2004, a month before the elections, Tempo magazine went so far as to call for the elections to be postponed in some areas because of lack of ballot boxes and polling booths

And back in 1999, Kompas newspaper reported on 3 May that most voters did not want that year's election delayed. Three days later it published a cartoon showing the members of the General Elections Commission being too busy fighting amongst themselves to notice the impending election. And there were calls for a delayed vote in some areas because of problems with voter registration and damaged ballot boxes.

Yes it's all being left until the last minute. But that's the way this country works. Very little happens for months and months, then in a final flurry of activity it all gets sorted out. The 1999 and 2004 elections went ahead with no major problems, and Pemiloopy is confident that the last-minute panic will ensure the same happens this year. Have a little faith in your own people guys...

Number Ones Only Please

John Nance Garner IV, the 32nd Vice-president of the United States, once described the number two job as "not worth a bucket of warm piss". Indonesia's politicians seem to agree – nobody wants to be VP.

Article 9 of Law No.42/2008 on the Presidential Election states “Candidate pairs [president and vice-president] shall be proposed by political parties or groupings of political parties fulfilling the condition that they win at least 20 percent of the seats in the [House of Representatives] or obtain at least 25 percent of valid votes nationally in the [House of Representatives] election, before the organization of the election for president and vice-president”

Even if there was an exact four-way split in the national vote, with four parties winning 25.00000%, the maximum number of candidates would be four. Or, according to the legislature seats criteria, if five parties win 112 seats each, there would be five. But at the risk of pointing out the obvious, this is not going to happen. Assuming President SBY's Democratic Party, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle and Vice-president Yusuf Kalla's Golkar can wrap up 60 percent of the vote between them, that only leaves 40 percent or so – or one candidate's-worth (assuming Golkar either come up with their own candidate or back SBY-Jusuf Kalla). Hanura's Wiranto and Gerindra's Prabowo hate each other, so a team-up there is out of the question – and neither seem likely to win 25 percent of the vote without massive vote-buying.

So, with so few possibilities for the top job, it may be a choice between vice-president or nothing. It looks as if some of the current self-proclaimed presidential candidates will have to eat humble pie, or hope that nobody remembers how they said they only wanted to be president. Should that day dawn, here are the quotes that could come to haunt them:

On January 4, 2009, in Jakarta, Wiranto said, “I have nominated myself as a presidential candidate, not as a vice-presidential candidate” (Surabaya Post online, 24/1/09)

Way back on October 31, 2008, “independent” (i.e. party-less) former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso, said in Makassar “If I am now offered a vice-presidential candidateship, I am not prepared [to accept it]. I am not belittling the position, but I have a different character. I am a commander, I have been a commander many times. My character was formed like that. I am a maker of policy.” (Kompas online 31/10/08)

On February 4, 2009, in Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengku Buwono X stated he did not want to stand for the vice-presidency, saying, “I have put myself forward as a presidential candidate because so many letters from North Sumatra to Papua have urged me to become a presidential candidate, not a vice-presidential candidate” (Kompas online, 5/2/09)

Others are more shrewd, allowing others to deny they want the VP job, perhaps paving the way for strategic U-turns later. For example, Prabowo's trusted friend and Gerindra Party vice-chairman Fadli Zion said on January 27 in Lampung, “from the beginning, for us, Pak Prabowo is a presidential candidate, not a vice-presidential candidate.” He also said that any offers from presidential candidates wanting Prabowo as their running mate would be “rejected outright” (Lampung Post online, 28/1/09)

So assuming Jusuf Kalla, about the only politician in Indonesia who has not said he won't take the VP job, sticks with SBY in return for an endorsement in 2014, it looks like the other vice-presidential candidates will be non-entities or people with their mouths full of humble pie.

ABS Slows President

Is it a rumor or a rumor of a rumor? Or a rumor that the rumor of a rumor is not true - it is merely a rumor? Nobody seems sure. Here's how it all started:

On 29 January, President SBY gave a speech in front of 200 soldiers and police officers in which he said "I heard a rumor that senior Army officers are saying ABS, anybody but presidential candidate S. There are also senior police officers that have joined the campaign team of presidential candidate X. I am certain this information is not true. I am certain this information is not true. "

So why mention it then? Well, it seems that the president is worried that the events of 2004 will be repeated. As his presidential spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, explained on 2 February, "it is an open secret that members of the military and the National Police were active in campaigning for presidential candidate B in 2004". (Note: the candidates in 2004 were Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Wiranto, Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz

So far so weird. Everybody (ahem!) seems to have something to say about the ABS rumor (the abbreviation works in Indonesian as well). First into the fray was the Indonesian Military commander, General Djoko Santoso, who said he knew nothing of the rumor (well he would....). On 29 January, National Police chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri categorically denied any of his officers were involved and insisted the brownshirts would be neutral. Over the next few days, politicians made predictable statements about how naughty the president was to go spreading rumors like that. The military meanwhile repeatedly insisted it was neutral.

Of course, as the saying goes, a good trick is worth doing twice. Given that SBY received a huge boost by being seen as the underdog in 2004, he may be thinking that it won't do him any harm this time either. Hence the coy refusal to say what everybody else is assuming: candidate S is SBY himself...

But back to the statement from Andi Malarangeng who helpfully explained that the president had made the statement to ensure the events of 2004, for which he had forgiven those responsible, were not repeated. At the risk of pointing out the obvious, not only did a candidate with the initial 'B' not even make it to the first round, but SBY actually won. What part of that doesn't he want repeated?

Humbug!

It was bound to start sooner or later. The humbug is now on our TV screens and in the papers and magazines. President SBY's Democrat Party and its claims to have reduced fuel prices have already been discussed - the humbug element is that he raised them in the first place and that in neighboring Malaysia, according to Tempo magazine the other week, prices have been reduced not thrice but seven times...

Then there is the United Development Party (PPP). In the celebrations of its 36th anniversary on Saturday (24/1/09), party chairman Suryadharma Ali said, "the United Development Party was born because Indonesia's Moslems missed having a vehicle for their political struggles". Er... no. They had those in the pre-PPP Islamic parties. The PPP was born out of a desire by the authoritarian President Suharto to reduce the number of opponents. He forced all the Islamic parties to merge into the easily controllable PPP in 1971. This same PPP is now losing political ground to newer Islamic parties and is frantically scrambling for support - hence that masterpiece of misinformation from Ali.

One of the PPP's rivals is the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), a party with its support basis among urban Moslems. It seems to feel it should run ads, but isn't quite sure what to say. "We are Islamic"? - too risky - might want support from nationalist parties later on. "We are anti-corruption"? - been done before. Ok then, "we are jolly good" - which is what they seem to have settled on.

And the opportunity for large-scale humbug comes today - Chinese New Year. Already we have had ethnic Chinese on TV thanking President SBY and saying there is no discrimination any more. Er.. well it was President Megawati who lifted the ban on celebrations of Chinese New Year and frankly to say there is no discrimination is ludicrous. Meanwhile Pemiloopy hasn't seen a Democratic Party ad for Chinese New Year, but he is sure it exists. As for the Gerindra Party, its leader loathes the Chinese, so unless he thinks he can get votes by attacking them, he will probably stay quiet. The rest of the parties seem unsure what to do - court the ethnic Chinese vote or pander to racism among their supporters. Time will tell, but there will be plenty of humbug one way or another.

STOP PRESS: Well! Pemiloopy is almost beside himself having just watched a TV ad by the Gerindra Party in which the Chinese-hating Prabowo Subianto wishes voters "Kong Xi Fa Choi" - Happy Chinese New Year. Dear God, that must have stuck in his throat. Far be it for Pemiloopy to repeat unproved allegations about the alleged involvement of disgraced former general Prabowo in the organization of the riots and mass rapes of ethnic Chinese in Jakarta in May 1998, but that ad was breathtakingly hypocritical. If this was a spoken blog, you'd hear sputtering! It's like George W. Bush appealing to followers of Michael Moore; Golkar sucking up to communists; Nelson Mandela courting white supremists or Margaret Thatcher cosying up to Arthur Scargill (readers from other nations will have to come up with their own analogies...) Ha!

What do the People Think?

The latest issue here is about opinion polls. It seems that some parties have been "ordering" opinion polls with the results they want to see. Meanwhile, a section of the electorate seems thoroughly disillusioned by the whole process.

Firstly, look at the varying opinion poll "results". For example, over the last three months, according to Tempo magazine (19/1/2009), President SBY's Democrat Party has been on top in the polls by between 2 and 9 percent. Then suddenly two polls from the Indonesian Survey Circle (Lingkaran Survey Indonesia) and the National Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Nasional) show Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) ahead by 11.7% and 8.8% respectively. Funny that. To help readers work out if anything untoward is going on, see if you can guess the answers to these questions:

1) Do the polling organizations have the same HQ and leadership?
2) Is the Indonesian Survey Circle acting as a political consultant for the PDIP?

More astute observers will have correctly guessed the answer is "YES" to both. Not exactly known for its principled stance on anything, the PDIP is up to its usual tricks to try and convince undecided voters that it is popular and therefore worth a vote.

Meanwhile, Kompas newspaper has been printing text messages sent in by its readers. Here are some example comments:

• "First the candidates hurt the trees by nailing their pictures up. Then they hurt us by conning us"
• "The people don't believe any more. What's the point in an election: it's a waste of money. After all the result will be new corrupt people...."
• "Do you want a big salary, a house and respect? All you have to do is turn up, listen, sit quietly and you receive money for 5 years. Register now as a legislative candidate"
• The main reason ... why candidates stand in the election is that they want to be rich... not to help the people."
• "As long as parties and their members are still as corrupt as they are now, the most realistic choice is not to vote. Don't legalize corruption by voting in the election."

Of course these are just the mobile phone-owning newspaper-reading classes. The parties must be praying it is easier to pull the wool over the eyes of the silent majority.

It's that Man Again

So the New Year is upon us. The campaign remains quiet with a few notable exceptions. The most prominent is the Democratic Party of incumbent president SBY. Goodness me, that man gets around. Every single day of the slightest significance prompts another TV ad. Just before Christmas it was "Happy Mother's Day from the Democrat Party and SBY". Then there was the 2009 New Year and the Islamic New Year (two for the price of one there). The man's face is everywhere on posters. And in the latest TV ad spectacular, the party has the bare-faced cheek to take credit for lowering fuel prices (forgetting to mention that SBY's government put them up in the first place). So scared is SBY of taking any decisions that might cost him election glory, he is in the process of missing a golden opportunity to get rid of fuel subsidies (which cost the country Rp132 trillion a year - four times the number 2 budget item - education!). Now oil prices are low, all he has to do is remove subsidies: if they rise again it would no longer be the government's fault!

Meanwhile, Gerindra, the party of disgraced former "special" forces commander Prabowo (and former murder suspect Muchdi) continues to run expensive ads targeted at the poor - whom Prabowo presumably hopes will have forgotten his inglorious past in the human rights field.

In at number three in the TV ad splurge is vice-president Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party, which is playing the "protector of national stability, force behind national development" card. Again, hopes must be high of collective amnesia.

The rest of the parties have gone rather quiet, and only a few are bothering to replace the wind-shredded party flags and banners. Among these are the Crescent Star Party, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and a tiny new party headed by the daughter of a national hero, the National People's Concern Party. Not really sure why they're bothering, unless they know something we don't...