Election Watchout!

The day has come! The polls open in 6 hours.

There are a number of things that need to be watched for in the coming weeks:

• East Java: There are many problems with the voter list (electoral roll), especially in East Java, where the gubernatorial election revealed oddities such as underage and deceased voters on the register, as well as many names with the same demographic code number. Coincidentally (or not), East Java is the electoral base of the National Awakening Party (PKB) which has been split asunder such that party founder Gus Dur has urged his supporters not to vote PKB but to support the Gerindra Party of disgraced former general Prabowo. Watch out for shenanigans there - especially if Gerindra fails to win enough votes to win seats in the legislature. Also treat any massive Gerindra vote with skepticism.

• Money Politics: The General Elections Commission briefly interpreted the Election Law on spending limits as only applying to individual donations, before hastily revoking its decree. The richest party is er.. Gerindra, which is bankrolled by Prabowo's older brother. Parties have to submit their accounts within 15 days after April 9.

• Aceh: The Indonesian military have been giving the Aceh Party a hard time since the army's humiliating withdrawal from Aceh. If the less-than-saintly former rebels look like doing too well, there could be violence.

• Hanura: The party of indicted human rights violator ex general Wiranto is predicted to win only 1.3% of the national vote according to a poll in Kompas newspaper (30/3/09). That would mean no seats for the party, and possible an end to his latest presidential race. If that looks likely, watch out for dirty tricks in eastern Indonesia, away from the media. Conversely, if the party does suspiciously well (although Pemiloopy thinks it will do better than the polling suggests as Hanura ran a grassroots campaign out of the reach of pollsters), that may mean something is amiss.

• Eastern Indonesia: Bastion of Golkar, possibly under threat from incumbent President SBY's Democratic Party. Far from the gaze of the national media, who knows what will happen, given the rift between SBY and his VP, Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla.

• The count: Funny things have happened in previous elections with the percentages and totals as the votes have come in. Watch this blog for a blow-by-blow account of the latest numbers (assuming the Internet and phone network doesn't collapse under the strain).

• Old faces vanishing: Thanks to the 2.5% electoral threshold, don't be surprised if some of the older (relatively speaking) parties have their last hurrah this time round. Vulnerable parties include the Crescent Star Party (PBB), which has only ever been successful in the leader's home province, and possibly even the National Mandate Party (PAN) of reform figure Amien Rais, which may be about to go the way of the 1950s Indonesian Socialist Party due to its elitist nature and the recent split that has seen the National Sun Party break away.