The Things They Say (1)

Wiranto, Secretary General of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) speaking on 22 March 2009 in Surabaya urged his supporters not to be tricked by promises of money in the 2009 elections, according to Antara news agency. He then went on to er.. offer promise of change.

Kompas newspaper, 27 March 2009, p25: "Two Hanura candidates jailed for seven months", for giving out food parcels to 100 people on 14 February. Well, it wasn't money......

Vox taxi

It's all very well following the opinion polls, but given the Democratic Party's monotonous lead (around 24% of the vote, 7-10% ahead of Megawati's PDIP) it's just not very interesting - especially as the other parties seem to have given up paying for polls that show them in out in front.

It is a well-known fact that if you want to know what's going on in a city, the best way is to jump in a taxi and ask. Jakarta is no exception and its taxi drivers are a savvy lot. There seems to be a consensus (OK - that's a bit of a stretch and not exactly a statistically accurate sample) that President SBY will and should win. "Just let him continue" is a typical comment. What about Megawati, and her "party of the little people"? Ignoring the usual girth-related comments, the most oft-heard sentiment is that she did absolutely nothing when she was president last time, and doesn't deserve another chance. In fact, they say, all she is doing now is criticizing. So what about Gerindra, the high-spending party vehicle of disgraced former general Prabowo? "He was behind the disappearances of students in '98" said one driver, showing that political memories are long here... Incidentally, this he why he was dishonorably discharged from the military.

So, if it was down to the taxi drivers, the election would be a foregone conclusion for SBY. Hmmm. That's what the polls say anyway.

And speaking of Megawati and her criticizing (many Indonesians don't like wingeing politicians, which is why Amien Rais has vanished without trace), in a desperate attempt to publicly disagree with something the government is doing, last week she launched a bizarre attack on the cash handouts being given to the poor to offset the reductions in fuel subsidies, claiming it was turning the people into beggars. In a hasty shift, the party is now running TV ads showing its workers in a village ensuring that the cash is going to the right people. Oh the irony. Not known for expressing, or indeed having, any opinions, as soon as she opens her mouth she produces the biggest gaffe of the campaign so far. That'll teach her to try and be smart. Perhaps she should have consulted with a taxi driver before opening her mouth.

Money, Money, Money

The campaign is underway. Rather a damp squib so far. No traffic congestion (well, a bit today as President SBY's Democratic Party was in action at Jakarta's main stadium).

People seem to be thoroughly unimpressed by the whole thing. On March 18, Kompas newspaper carried a report from the city of Yogyakarta, Central Java, where one neighborhood has declared itself a campaign-free zone, with no flags, banners or posters in sight. Apparently the biggest problem was not complaints from the party faithful, but protests from unemployed youths tempted by the money on offer.

Money? Yes. Apparently parties pay Rp20,000 (about US$1.60) per flag put up. In Jakarta, the going rate for a banner is Rp150,000 per month. But it's not only flags and banners that bring in the cash. It's long been established practice here to pay people to attend party rallies during the campaign. But while in previous elections, lunch, a T-shirt and Rp10,000 would bring out the masses, all parties are paying at least Rp50,000 this year. Gerindra, the party vehicle of disgraced former general former (i.e. discharged) general Prabowo Subianto is paying an eye-popping Rp100,000 (US$8.30, or 9 packs of cigarettes here) per head. This may not sound much, but the minimum wage in Jakarta is only just over Rp1 million per month. A Gerindra rally with 10,000 people would cost the party Rp1 billion, or some 7% of its election fund.

So, it may be that the parties are saving the big campaigning (and spending) for their second and final allocated day of the campaign. With 38 parties each paying at least Rp50,000, as long as they are prepared to move between locations, millions of Indonesia's unemployed could make a tidy packet this month. Might even help ease the recession.

And given that people seem to be getting more cynical about the parties and their extravagant promises, there is of course no guarantee they'll actually vote for the parties whose money they take. The people might just have the last laugh.........

Ready, Steady, Campaign!

It all starts tomorrow! The election campaign proper! There is a list of places where parties are allowed to campaign, and anther list of places where they are not. The no-go list includes the Hotel Indonesia roundabout - a traditional location for the my-party-has-more-followers-than-yours rallies. Of course it's all very well to ban gatherings outside the approved venues, but the people who are paid to attend - oops - I mean the devoted party followers, can hardly be expected to arrive one-by-one and wait in orderly lines for admission. This means there will be major congestion near campaign venues (for the major parties anyway - in fact it would be very embarrassing if there was none).

Despite a last minute balls-up with the campaign schedule, once again the General Elections Commission has arranged things so parties who hate each other do not campaign on the same day. Which is another way of telling any party scheduled on the same day as one of the biggies that they don't have much of a chance.

With apologies for the Jakarta-centric nature of this post, here is the schedule for the capital for the major parties (everybody gets two turns):

Tuesday 17 March: Golkar (traditionally generous to attendees)
Wednesday 18 March: United Development Party (PPP) (if anybody remembers who they are)
Friday 20 March: Democrat Party (SBY's lot) (will have to be very discreet if it pays people to attend) & Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) (the holier-than-thou lot, big in the capital)
Saturday 21 March: National Mandate Party (PAN) (if anybody comes...) & Gerindra (with Rp15 billion in funds, they have enough to hand out food, cash and T-shirts to all comers)
Tuesday 24 March: Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) (another rentacrowd party)
Thursday 26 March: Hanura (Wiranto) (also rich, needs to be seen as more popular than the hated Gerindra, so may be generous with the food and cash) & Democrat Party (again)
Saturday 28 March: Golkar (last chance to show they are loved by the people)
Monday 30 March: Prosperous Justice Party (probably will try to turn Jakarta white by bussing in supporters and causing traffic chaos)
Tuesday 31 March: National Mandate Party (farewell fling) & Gerindra (probably still lots of money left - expect a big show)
Saturday 4 April: PDI-P (Could be a biggie as nobody is at work - not that it makes much diference to the unemployed)

How to say nothing in 76 words...

Now that Jusuf Kalla has decided he simply can't wait until 2014 for a crack at the presidency, he has two problems: 1) how to ensure Golkar (which presumably will nominate him) gets enough votes (20%) in the legislative elections and 2) who to choose as his running mate.

Perhaps in an effort to tackle the first difficulty while overlooking the second, Vice-president Jusuf Kalla met ex-president (and ex-VP) (and rival presidential candidate) Megawati Sukarnoputri on 12 March at her place. They were photographed holding up important-looking copies of the "Two Figures Agreement". So what specific points did these political heavyweights come up with. Er... none.

Here is what they agreed (stifle those yawns):
1. To build a strong government to bring about the development of the nation and prosperity for the people.
2. The strengthen the presidential system of government in accordance with the mandate of the 1945 Constitution that has a strong basis of support in the House of Representatives.
3. To strengthen the economic system to implement an economic program that is sovereign, independent and is oriented towards the interests of the people.
4. To bring about closer political communication between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the Golkar Party as a manifestation of the responsibility of the two largest parties in the 1999 and 2004 elections.
5. To ensure the successful organization of the 2009 elections that are honest, fair, direct, general, free and secret, as well as safe and prestigious.

Hmmm. So 76 words (OK, some numbers) of nothing. Slightly change the wording of point 4 and this could have been written by any two political parties in Indonesia, past or present (including the banned Communist Party of Indonesia). Or change the Indonesia-specific references and the Democrats and Republicans in the US or the Conservatives and Labour in the UK or even Zanu-PF and the MDC in Zimbabwe could produce an almost identical document.

So what's the point? In the words of an SMS contributor in Kompas newspaper on 14 March, "It's impossible for Megawati to be on the same ticket as Jusuf Kalla! Unless Indonesia has two presidents. Which of them wants to be vice-president?"

There is no way Megawati will take the number two job, and why on earth would Jusuf Kalla abandon current president SBY, for the VP job with somebody else who is less likely to win. Surely he's not THAT stupid..

Or could this be incredibly short term political expediency so both parties win lots of seats in the legislature and then quietly forget their alliance? Any possible answers to this puzzle gratefully accepted...

Numbers...numbers...

Some surprising numbers have been emerging over the last couple of weeks. And they are important numbers: people and money (in that order).

The General Elections Commission (KPU) is in a bit of a tizzy because the number of voters doesn't add up. The KPU in the centre and its regional offshoots have come up with different totals for the number of voters. In some cases, according to Kompas (19 February 2009) these differences are significant. For example the KPU in Jakarta has decreed that there are 29,294,127 voters in East Java, while that province's KPU says there are 29,524,214 , a difference of 230,087. Meanwhile the figures for Papua are 2,190,516 according to the centre and 2,063,087 according to the Papua KPU, an alarming difference of 5.82%. Clearly these numbers are big enough to make a difference as to who gets elected and who doesn't. Nobody seems quite sure what to do about this. Tempo magazine (3 March 2009) reported that among the problems are duplication of names, nonsensical distribution of genders and fictitious voters. And according to the list for one province, there is a family with more more than 100 members.

And now there are some even more amazing numbers. All parties are obliged to report their assets before the campaign proper starts. Most of them seem to have done, although the election oversight body has accused Megawati's Indonesian Democratic of Struggle of not coming clean. The party's central office chairman Tjahjo Kumolo says this is a lie, an attempt to wreck the image of the party. He doesn't say who by... Anyway, he told detik.com, the party has already provided its account number and initial balance, just not the details yet.

Back to the numbers. Gerindra, the party set up as a vehicle for disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto to grab the presidency, has managed to accumulate Rp15.694 billion. Not bad for a new party - in fact enough to give almost Rp100 to every single voter. At least it explains the non-stop TV ads. In at number two is the Democratic Party, the vehicle established by current president (and former general) Yudhoyono to grab the presidency, with Rp7.027 trillion. And in third place is the People's Conscience Party, a vehicle established by indicted war criminal and former general Wiranto to grab the presidency, with just over Rp5 billion.

You've got to feel sorry for the impoverished also-rans. In last place is the Functional Party of Struggle (these Indonesian party names don't translate very well do they?) with a paltry Rp1,000,000. Just ahead is the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party, with Rp1.38 million. How strange: the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party was also established by a general. Obviously some ex-generals are better at "attracting" funds than others...

The Usual Delays...

Once again the Indonesian media is wringing its hands in despair because of delays in the election preparations. With long-winded moans about unprinted, yet alone distributed, ballot papers and despair over uninformed voters, they fill column inches with their wails of despair. Again.

A time traveler landing in Indonesia could be forgiven for thinking that the above intro was about the 2004 or 1999 elections, not 2009. In an editorial in March 2004, a month before the elections, Tempo magazine went so far as to call for the elections to be postponed in some areas because of lack of ballot boxes and polling booths

And back in 1999, Kompas newspaper reported on 3 May that most voters did not want that year's election delayed. Three days later it published a cartoon showing the members of the General Elections Commission being too busy fighting amongst themselves to notice the impending election. And there were calls for a delayed vote in some areas because of problems with voter registration and damaged ballot boxes.

Yes it's all being left until the last minute. But that's the way this country works. Very little happens for months and months, then in a final flurry of activity it all gets sorted out. The 1999 and 2004 elections went ahead with no major problems, and Pemiloopy is confident that the last-minute panic will ensure the same happens this year. Have a little faith in your own people guys...