Learning from the mistakes of others

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has said today, 29 September, that he is "God willing" to stand for re-election next year "probably" with Vice-president Jusuf Kalla as his running mate.

In the 2004 presidential election, Vice-president Hamzah Haz got a bit carried away (or perhaps just plain greedy) and decided to stand against the encumbent president Megawati Sukarnoputri, leaving Mega to scramble around for a suitable Islamic runing mate to complement her nationalist credientials. Predictably he obtained a pitiful 3% of the vote - amd Mega lost too. Had Hamzah Haz shown a little more patience and struck a deal with Mega, they might have been re-elected, then he could have had her blessing for the top job next time.

Jusuf Kalla seems to have learned this lesson. Could it be that he has agreed to put his Golkar Party behind SBY in return for an endorsement for the presidency in 2014?

Sorry ladies?

Article 53 of Law No. 10/2008 on General Elections stipulates that the lists of prospective candidates submitted by parties to the General Elections Commission (KPU) should contain at least 30% women. However, according to Kompas newspaper on September 18, this quota only applies to the provisional list, and in no way means that 30% of the seats in the legislature will be occupied by women.

The Kompas article points out that in Rwandi, the quota for women in the legislature is 24%, and that if there are not enough women, the seats are left empty. Thanks for that.

Watch this space for more on this once somebody else has done the maths on the list of prosepctive candidates...

Keeping it up

Still a long way to go until the election, and some of the parties are taking advantage of the holiday season to wish potential voters a Happy Idul Fitri while trying to keep their parties in the public eye.

Gerindra, the vehicle of disgraced former commander of Indonesia's special forces Prabowo, has recruited the "Three Divas", a sort of Indonesia megagroup including top singer Kris Dayanti, to pass on the holiday wishes. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took out an ad in the best-selling daily paper Kompas the other week for his Democratic Party vehicle. However this was more annoying than anything else as it was in the form of a flap on the front page, obscuring the weather report and making it impossible to hold the paper with only two hands...

Then a blast from the past. Akbar Tandjung (who is of course entirely innocent of the embezzlement he was once charged with as Indonesia's famously independent Supreme Court granted the appeal of this former head of the former ruling party) can now been seen standing stiffly in front of his family squeezing greetings out of a wooden smile. So presumably he wants the presidency as well...

Meanwhile, after the flurry of flags a few weeks ago, some of the banners are looking decidedly tattered. There have been a few token holiday banners, but most parties don't seem to have thought how they are going to keep up public interest until April and beyond, and seem to have given up for the time being.

Artists

The election campaign has gone a bit quiet as it has been overtaken by other more juicy news.

The one election issue in the news at the moment is the trend for celebrities to stand for election. The idea is that soap opera stars will bring voters flocking to parties because of name recognition and their "attractive appearance" as one TV station put it.

Not everybody is happy about this. A candidate for the National Mandate Party (PAN) was complaining bitterly that artists on the list mean that other candidates get pushed further down the list, thus reducing their chances of winning a seat in the legislature. Presumably the celebs see a seat as a fixed and definite source of income, given the fickle tastes of the TV-viewing public. Presumably also, they don't have to pay the parties for the privilege of being an official candidate - one party demands Rp50 million (about US$5,300 ) from each prospective candidate.

The problem is that once elected, they need to get the money back. Any guesses how they do that?

Answers coming soon...

STOP PRESS: "Kompas" newpaper published some figures on 18/1/09. It seems that PAN has a total of 25 celebs standing for the party, or nearly half the total of 59. Some way behind at number two is Hanura with 9. The PPP and the Democrat Party have 4 each.

The "My Republi Party" [sic]

The "Partai Republiku" successfully took the General Election Commission (KPU) to court as they wanted to participate in the election. In a rather confusingly worded ruling (and appeal), the judge did not actually make it clear why it should be allowed to. After all, the party failed the verification process by the KPU as it does not have representative offices in enough provinces. More than 66 parties wanted to take part, but in the end, only 38 will do so nationally.

So why so desperate. After all, the "Partai Republiku" doesn't have a hope of winning a significant number of seats, yet alone a majority. Could it have anything to do with the fact that parties will receive state funding? It could indeed!

And in their haste to set up a party, the people behind it couldn't even be bothered to come up with a proper name. In Indonesian, 'republik' means, unsurprisingly, 'republic'. The suffix 'ku' means 'my'. So 'My Republic Party' is 'Partai Republikku', with double k. But 'Partai Republiku' means 'My Republi Party'.

Now what's the indonesian for 'plonker'?

Saving face, saying little

The General Election Commission (KPU) has called off its round-the-world jaunt in the face of a public outcry. Officially it's just been delayed - this is known in these parts as "saving face".

Meanwhile, the official KPU website (www.kpu.or.id) is now rather thin on information. It used to have an English language section, but that has vanished. Also gone, rather mysteriously, are the 2004 election results. The link to map of electoral districts goes to a blank page, and the local Aceh parties don't even get a mention. Anybody wanting information abut the election is advised to stick to this blog :-) or make use of Google. Or if all ease fails, read the Jakarta Post (online at www.thejakartapost.com), although bear in mind that on 11 September this year, it ran an article with the headline "Eight years after 9/11".

Presidential hopefuls

Once the legislative (DPR) elections are out of the way the real fun begins. Indonesia's second presidential elections will be held around July 5, 2009. The presidential election law is not ready yet, but it looks like parties or groups of parties who get 20-30% of the vote in the DPR election will be allowed to nominate candidates.

The likely candidates:
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) - incumbent. Nominated by his Democrat Party vehicle. Will probably need support from other parties. His party will be lucky to win 20% of the vote in the legisaltive election.
Megawati Sukarnoputri - former president, defeated because she did bog all while in office. Her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle should pick up 20-30% of the vote
Jusuf Kalla - current vice-president. Likely to be too greedy and impatient to accept the VP job again in return for supporting SBY and in turn get SBY's support for the presidency in 2014. His Holkar Party should get 20-30% of votes in the DPR election.
Wiranto - indicted war criminal (for crimes in East Timor) - nominated by his Hanura Party vehicle, which may attract 15-20% of the vote campaigning on an anti-foreigner ticket
Soetrisno Bachir - businessman and chairman of the National mandate Party (PAN) - may pick up the Islamist nomination

Also rans:
Prabowo Soebianto - disgraced former general. Has been advertising a lot on TV, but his party vehicle (Gerindra) is too small. Possible VP candidate
Sutiyoso - disgraced former governor of Jakarta. Doesn't have a party vehicle and may have left it too late
Yusril Ihza Mahendra - disgraced former minister. Possible token Muslim VP for a nationalist candidate
Akbar Tandjung - oh dear me. Just Google the guy!

Oddities

The fun has started. Party flags are everywhere. Oddities so far:

• The General Elections Commission (KPU) has decided some of its members need to go overseas to tell expat Indonesians (all 1.6 million of them) about the elections. The fact that nobody in Indonesia seems to know much about them is due to the fact that the funds for the overseas jaunt were released first, before the domestic campaign funds...

• After having to let four small (ie insignificant) parties participate in the election, thanks to a lawsuit, the KPU has been ordered by another court to let yet another join in the fun. However, according to the rules, the party in question doesn't actually meet the conditions for qualification. Hmmm. Parties contesting the election get state funding and judges are corrupt. Any connection..?

What it's all about

On Thursday April 9 2009 Indonesians will go to the polls to elect the 550 members of the House of Representatives (DPR), the legislature, and four members for each province for the Regional Representatives Council (DPD).

A total of 38 parties are contesting the DPR elections, with another six regional parties in the province of Aceh only. Members of the DPD are elected as individuals, not by party.

The 38 national parties, and their official ballot paper numbers, are:

1. People's Conscience Party (Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat, Partai Hanura)
2. Concern for the Nation Functional Party (Partai Karya Peduli Bangsa)
3. Indonesian Workers and Employers Party (Partai Pengusaha dan Pekerja Indonesia)
4. National People's Concern Party (Partai Peduli Rakyat Nasional)
5. Great Indonesia Movement Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya, Gerindra)
6. National Front Party (Partai Barisan Nasional, Barnas)
7. Justice and Unity Party (Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia)
8. Prosperous Justice Party (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera)
9. National Mandate Party (Partai Amanat Nasional)
10. New Indonesia Party of Struggle (Partai Perjuangan Indonesia Baru)
11. Sovereignty Party (Partai Kedaulatan)
12 .Regional Unity Party (Partai Persatuan Daerah)
13. National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa)
14. Indonesian Youth Party (Partai Pemuda Indonesia)
15. Indonesian National Party Marhaenism (Partai Nasional Indonesia Marhaenisme)
16. Democratic Renewal Party (Partai Demokrasi Pembaruan, PDP)
17. Functional Party of Struggle (Partai Karya Perjuangan)
18. National Sun Party(Partai Matahari Bangsa)
19. Indonesian Democratic Vanguard Party (Partai Penegak Demokrasi Indonesia)
20. Democratic Nationhood Party (Partai Demokrasi Kebangsaan)
21. Archipelago Republic Party (Partai Republik Nusantara)
22. Vanguard Party (Partai Pelopor)
23. Party of Functional Groups(Golkar/Partai Golongan Karya )
24. United Development Party (Partai Persatuan Pembangunan)
25. Prosperous Peace Party (Partai Damai Sejahtera)
26. Indonesian National Populist Fortress Party (Partai Nasional Benteng Kerakyatan Indonesia)
27. Crescent Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang)
28. Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan)
29. Reform Star Party (Partai Bintang Reformasi)
30. Patriot Party (Partai Patriot)
31. Democratic Party (Partai Demokrat)
32. Indonesian Democratic Party of Devotion (Partai Kasih Demokrasi Indonesia)
33. Prosperous Indonesia Party (Partai Indonesia Sejahtera)
34. Ulema National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Nasional Ulama)
41. Freedom Party (Partai Merdeka)
42. Indonesian Nahdlatul Community Party (Partai Persatuan Nahdlatul Ummah Indonesia)
43. Indonesian Unity Party (Partai Sarikat Indonesia)
44. Labor Party (Partai Buruh)