Counting...Counting...Gone!

Beginning shortly after the polls closed on April 9, the General Elections Commission's (KPU) website was updated with the latest votes counted for each party nationally. News portal detik.com had their own count, which displayed pretty much the same numbers. For a few days the KPU website was updated almost hourly. Then on April 29 1t 12:39pm the site announced that the updates had stopped with 14,739,196 votes counted . Shortly after that the special website went offline. Then a few days later, on May 5, the detik.com site resumed, with 80,231,512 votes counted. Since than the total has climbed to 100,028, 285 in fits and starts, with an update or two every day.

Meanwhile, on May 4, a new section of the KPU website appeared with detailed election results from the individual electoral regions, of which there are 77. Strangely the results for Aceh showed a vote of 0 for all six of the local parties (Aceh is the only province where local parties were allowed to stand). Pemiloopy was able to save the results as they appeared - the totals were downloadable in PDF. However once the results from three of East Java's 11 electoral regions posted, the updating stopped, and that section of the KPU website has also disappeared. East Java is the province where there were widespread allegations of fraud in the gubernatorial election last year. It is also the stronghold of the divided National Awakening Party and a region where the Gerindra vehicle of disgraced former general Prabowo was hoping to trick farmers into voting for him.

So, with one day remaining for the KPU to announce the final result, as required by Article 201 (1) of the Law No. 10/2008, the earlier transparency has gone, and it is by no means certain the increasingly incompetent Commission will even get this right. We shall see tomorrow...

STOP PRESS: The KPU has said, nay confirmed, that the final results of the elections will be announced at 7:30PM on Saturday May 9, in line with the legally mandated schedule, according to detik.com. Of the 77 electoral regions, the counting has been finished in all but two. The invitations have gone out and all parties will be present for the big event at the KPU building.

Election Watchout!

The day has come! The polls open in 6 hours.

There are a number of things that need to be watched for in the coming weeks:

• East Java: There are many problems with the voter list (electoral roll), especially in East Java, where the gubernatorial election revealed oddities such as underage and deceased voters on the register, as well as many names with the same demographic code number. Coincidentally (or not), East Java is the electoral base of the National Awakening Party (PKB) which has been split asunder such that party founder Gus Dur has urged his supporters not to vote PKB but to support the Gerindra Party of disgraced former general Prabowo. Watch out for shenanigans there - especially if Gerindra fails to win enough votes to win seats in the legislature. Also treat any massive Gerindra vote with skepticism.

• Money Politics: The General Elections Commission briefly interpreted the Election Law on spending limits as only applying to individual donations, before hastily revoking its decree. The richest party is er.. Gerindra, which is bankrolled by Prabowo's older brother. Parties have to submit their accounts within 15 days after April 9.

• Aceh: The Indonesian military have been giving the Aceh Party a hard time since the army's humiliating withdrawal from Aceh. If the less-than-saintly former rebels look like doing too well, there could be violence.

• Hanura: The party of indicted human rights violator ex general Wiranto is predicted to win only 1.3% of the national vote according to a poll in Kompas newspaper (30/3/09). That would mean no seats for the party, and possible an end to his latest presidential race. If that looks likely, watch out for dirty tricks in eastern Indonesia, away from the media. Conversely, if the party does suspiciously well (although Pemiloopy thinks it will do better than the polling suggests as Hanura ran a grassroots campaign out of the reach of pollsters), that may mean something is amiss.

• Eastern Indonesia: Bastion of Golkar, possibly under threat from incumbent President SBY's Democratic Party. Far from the gaze of the national media, who knows what will happen, given the rift between SBY and his VP, Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla.

• The count: Funny things have happened in previous elections with the percentages and totals as the votes have come in. Watch this blog for a blow-by-blow account of the latest numbers (assuming the Internet and phone network doesn't collapse under the strain).

• Old faces vanishing: Thanks to the 2.5% electoral threshold, don't be surprised if some of the older (relatively speaking) parties have their last hurrah this time round. Vulnerable parties include the Crescent Star Party (PBB), which has only ever been successful in the leader's home province, and possibly even the National Mandate Party (PAN) of reform figure Amien Rais, which may be about to go the way of the 1950s Indonesian Socialist Party due to its elitist nature and the recent split that has seen the National Sun Party break away.

Numbers...numbers...

Some surprising numbers have been emerging over the last couple of weeks. And they are important numbers: people and money (in that order).

The General Elections Commission (KPU) is in a bit of a tizzy because the number of voters doesn't add up. The KPU in the centre and its regional offshoots have come up with different totals for the number of voters. In some cases, according to Kompas (19 February 2009) these differences are significant. For example the KPU in Jakarta has decreed that there are 29,294,127 voters in East Java, while that province's KPU says there are 29,524,214 , a difference of 230,087. Meanwhile the figures for Papua are 2,190,516 according to the centre and 2,063,087 according to the Papua KPU, an alarming difference of 5.82%. Clearly these numbers are big enough to make a difference as to who gets elected and who doesn't. Nobody seems quite sure what to do about this. Tempo magazine (3 March 2009) reported that among the problems are duplication of names, nonsensical distribution of genders and fictitious voters. And according to the list for one province, there is a family with more more than 100 members.

And now there are some even more amazing numbers. All parties are obliged to report their assets before the campaign proper starts. Most of them seem to have done, although the election oversight body has accused Megawati's Indonesian Democratic of Struggle of not coming clean. The party's central office chairman Tjahjo Kumolo says this is a lie, an attempt to wreck the image of the party. He doesn't say who by... Anyway, he told detik.com, the party has already provided its account number and initial balance, just not the details yet.

Back to the numbers. Gerindra, the party set up as a vehicle for disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto to grab the presidency, has managed to accumulate Rp15.694 billion. Not bad for a new party - in fact enough to give almost Rp100 to every single voter. At least it explains the non-stop TV ads. In at number two is the Democratic Party, the vehicle established by current president (and former general) Yudhoyono to grab the presidency, with Rp7.027 trillion. And in third place is the People's Conscience Party, a vehicle established by indicted war criminal and former general Wiranto to grab the presidency, with just over Rp5 billion.

You've got to feel sorry for the impoverished also-rans. In last place is the Functional Party of Struggle (these Indonesian party names don't translate very well do they?) with a paltry Rp1,000,000. Just ahead is the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party, with Rp1.38 million. How strange: the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party was also established by a general. Obviously some ex-generals are better at "attracting" funds than others...

ABS Slows President

Is it a rumor or a rumor of a rumor? Or a rumor that the rumor of a rumor is not true - it is merely a rumor? Nobody seems sure. Here's how it all started:

On 29 January, President SBY gave a speech in front of 200 soldiers and police officers in which he said "I heard a rumor that senior Army officers are saying ABS, anybody but presidential candidate S. There are also senior police officers that have joined the campaign team of presidential candidate X. I am certain this information is not true. I am certain this information is not true. "

So why mention it then? Well, it seems that the president is worried that the events of 2004 will be repeated. As his presidential spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, explained on 2 February, "it is an open secret that members of the military and the National Police were active in campaigning for presidential candidate B in 2004". (Note: the candidates in 2004 were Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Wiranto, Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz

So far so weird. Everybody (ahem!) seems to have something to say about the ABS rumor (the abbreviation works in Indonesian as well). First into the fray was the Indonesian Military commander, General Djoko Santoso, who said he knew nothing of the rumor (well he would....). On 29 January, National Police chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri categorically denied any of his officers were involved and insisted the brownshirts would be neutral. Over the next few days, politicians made predictable statements about how naughty the president was to go spreading rumors like that. The military meanwhile repeatedly insisted it was neutral.

Of course, as the saying goes, a good trick is worth doing twice. Given that SBY received a huge boost by being seen as the underdog in 2004, he may be thinking that it won't do him any harm this time either. Hence the coy refusal to say what everybody else is assuming: candidate S is SBY himself...

But back to the statement from Andi Malarangeng who helpfully explained that the president had made the statement to ensure the events of 2004, for which he had forgiven those responsible, were not repeated. At the risk of pointing out the obvious, not only did a candidate with the initial 'B' not even make it to the first round, but SBY actually won. What part of that doesn't he want repeated?

That Other Election

Indonesia has temporarily forgotten all about its own election to focus all its attention on events the other side of the world, presumably to the puzzlement of people who think their own problems are more worthy of attention than those of the USA.

If you thought the global coverage of Obama's victory was hysterical ("On every level America will be changed by this result - its impact will be so profound that the nation will never be the same."said the BBC. Hmm. Including the geology? And of course it won't - nowhere ever is! It's called entropy), come to Indonesia. As the young Obama spent time in Jakarta - his mother remarried an Indonesian and moved here - the Indonesian media rapidly abandoned all pretense of impartiality and devoted pages and pages (and hours and hours) to their adopted son. As a result, the opinion on news portal detik.com (which they shrewdly started charging people to vote on!) saw McCain's rating at around 7% right until polling day. The fact that Obama's father was Muslim sealed it for many.

And this really shows the lack of political maturity among many here. In the same way that Megawati Sukarnoputri is wildly popular because she is the daughter of Indonesia's founding president, Obama is popular because he once lived in Jakarta and had a Muslim father. Never mind the issues.... For example his stance on abortion is at odds with the majority opinion here.

And more to the point, what are the odds that an ethnic Chinese Indonesian, or a non-Muslim Indonesian, will ever become president? And will losing candidates ever learn to accept defeat graciously? Not if the last election is anything to go by. Losing candidate Megawati went into a sulk, and refused to concede defeat, saying that she had not lost, merely experienced a drop in her vote.

Anyway, congratulations to Barack Obama, and commiserations to John McCain. You can both teach Indonesia a lot about winning and losing.

Numbers...numbers...

It's all about numbers, as the latest bout of fun and games shows.

Firstly, some members of the legislature (DPR) want to revise Law No. 10/2008 on Elections. The problem is that at the moment the order of candidates on the ballot paper will play a major role in determining who is awarded the seats won by the parties. Now some legislators want the seat to go to the candidate with most votes (what an extraordinary idea). This will probably be opposed by those people who have got themselves at the top of the list, by fair means or foul...

And President SBY's Democratic Party seem to be in breach of article 54 of Law No.10/2008, which states that the maximum number of candidates shall be no more than 120% of seats in the legisalture. Kompas newspaper (3/10/08) and General Election Commission (KPU) member Endang Sulastri seem to be a touch confused. According to Kompas, the Democratic Party has 673 candidates, which many people who say that "the maximum number is 120 percent of the totla number of DPR seats (550), namely 672 people."

Step forward Endang, who says "...we have registered and counted 120 percent of the seats in each electoral region [constituency] and the result is 675 candidates, not 120 percent of 550 DPR seats."

A quick check on the calculator shows that 672 is 120 percent of 560, not 550. Why? Because article 21 of Law No. 20/2008 fixes the number of DPR seats at "560 (five hundred and sixty)".

So can "Kompas" and the KPU a) not count or b) not read?

The "My Republi Party" [sic]

The "Partai Republiku" successfully took the General Election Commission (KPU) to court as they wanted to participate in the election. In a rather confusingly worded ruling (and appeal), the judge did not actually make it clear why it should be allowed to. After all, the party failed the verification process by the KPU as it does not have representative offices in enough provinces. More than 66 parties wanted to take part, but in the end, only 38 will do so nationally.

So why so desperate. After all, the "Partai Republiku" doesn't have a hope of winning a significant number of seats, yet alone a majority. Could it have anything to do with the fact that parties will receive state funding? It could indeed!

And in their haste to set up a party, the people behind it couldn't even be bothered to come up with a proper name. In Indonesian, 'republik' means, unsurprisingly, 'republic'. The suffix 'ku' means 'my'. So 'My Republic Party' is 'Partai Republikku', with double k. But 'Partai Republiku' means 'My Republi Party'.

Now what's the indonesian for 'plonker'?

Saving face, saying little

The General Election Commission (KPU) has called off its round-the-world jaunt in the face of a public outcry. Officially it's just been delayed - this is known in these parts as "saving face".

Meanwhile, the official KPU website (www.kpu.or.id) is now rather thin on information. It used to have an English language section, but that has vanished. Also gone, rather mysteriously, are the 2004 election results. The link to map of electoral districts goes to a blank page, and the local Aceh parties don't even get a mention. Anybody wanting information abut the election is advised to stick to this blog :-) or make use of Google. Or if all ease fails, read the Jakarta Post (online at www.thejakartapost.com), although bear in mind that on 11 September this year, it ran an article with the headline "Eight years after 9/11".

Oddities

The fun has started. Party flags are everywhere. Oddities so far:

• The General Elections Commission (KPU) has decided some of its members need to go overseas to tell expat Indonesians (all 1.6 million of them) about the elections. The fact that nobody in Indonesia seems to know much about them is due to the fact that the funds for the overseas jaunt were released first, before the domestic campaign funds...

• After having to let four small (ie insignificant) parties participate in the election, thanks to a lawsuit, the KPU has been ordered by another court to let yet another join in the fun. However, according to the rules, the party in question doesn't actually meet the conditions for qualification. Hmmm. Parties contesting the election get state funding and judges are corrupt. Any connection..?