Number Ones Only Please

John Nance Garner IV, the 32nd Vice-president of the United States, once described the number two job as "not worth a bucket of warm piss". Indonesia's politicians seem to agree – nobody wants to be VP.

Article 9 of Law No.42/2008 on the Presidential Election states “Candidate pairs [president and vice-president] shall be proposed by political parties or groupings of political parties fulfilling the condition that they win at least 20 percent of the seats in the [House of Representatives] or obtain at least 25 percent of valid votes nationally in the [House of Representatives] election, before the organization of the election for president and vice-president”

Even if there was an exact four-way split in the national vote, with four parties winning 25.00000%, the maximum number of candidates would be four. Or, according to the legislature seats criteria, if five parties win 112 seats each, there would be five. But at the risk of pointing out the obvious, this is not going to happen. Assuming President SBY's Democratic Party, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle and Vice-president Yusuf Kalla's Golkar can wrap up 60 percent of the vote between them, that only leaves 40 percent or so – or one candidate's-worth (assuming Golkar either come up with their own candidate or back SBY-Jusuf Kalla). Hanura's Wiranto and Gerindra's Prabowo hate each other, so a team-up there is out of the question – and neither seem likely to win 25 percent of the vote without massive vote-buying.

So, with so few possibilities for the top job, it may be a choice between vice-president or nothing. It looks as if some of the current self-proclaimed presidential candidates will have to eat humble pie, or hope that nobody remembers how they said they only wanted to be president. Should that day dawn, here are the quotes that could come to haunt them:

On January 4, 2009, in Jakarta, Wiranto said, “I have nominated myself as a presidential candidate, not as a vice-presidential candidate” (Surabaya Post online, 24/1/09)

Way back on October 31, 2008, “independent” (i.e. party-less) former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso, said in Makassar “If I am now offered a vice-presidential candidateship, I am not prepared [to accept it]. I am not belittling the position, but I have a different character. I am a commander, I have been a commander many times. My character was formed like that. I am a maker of policy.” (Kompas online 31/10/08)

On February 4, 2009, in Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengku Buwono X stated he did not want to stand for the vice-presidency, saying, “I have put myself forward as a presidential candidate because so many letters from North Sumatra to Papua have urged me to become a presidential candidate, not a vice-presidential candidate” (Kompas online, 5/2/09)

Others are more shrewd, allowing others to deny they want the VP job, perhaps paving the way for strategic U-turns later. For example, Prabowo's trusted friend and Gerindra Party vice-chairman Fadli Zion said on January 27 in Lampung, “from the beginning, for us, Pak Prabowo is a presidential candidate, not a vice-presidential candidate.” He also said that any offers from presidential candidates wanting Prabowo as their running mate would be “rejected outright” (Lampung Post online, 28/1/09)

So assuming Jusuf Kalla, about the only politician in Indonesia who has not said he won't take the VP job, sticks with SBY in return for an endorsement in 2014, it looks like the other vice-presidential candidates will be non-entities or people with their mouths full of humble pie.

ABS Slows President

Is it a rumor or a rumor of a rumor? Or a rumor that the rumor of a rumor is not true - it is merely a rumor? Nobody seems sure. Here's how it all started:

On 29 January, President SBY gave a speech in front of 200 soldiers and police officers in which he said "I heard a rumor that senior Army officers are saying ABS, anybody but presidential candidate S. There are also senior police officers that have joined the campaign team of presidential candidate X. I am certain this information is not true. I am certain this information is not true. "

So why mention it then? Well, it seems that the president is worried that the events of 2004 will be repeated. As his presidential spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, explained on 2 February, "it is an open secret that members of the military and the National Police were active in campaigning for presidential candidate B in 2004". (Note: the candidates in 2004 were Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Wiranto, Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz

So far so weird. Everybody (ahem!) seems to have something to say about the ABS rumor (the abbreviation works in Indonesian as well). First into the fray was the Indonesian Military commander, General Djoko Santoso, who said he knew nothing of the rumor (well he would....). On 29 January, National Police chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri categorically denied any of his officers were involved and insisted the brownshirts would be neutral. Over the next few days, politicians made predictable statements about how naughty the president was to go spreading rumors like that. The military meanwhile repeatedly insisted it was neutral.

Of course, as the saying goes, a good trick is worth doing twice. Given that SBY received a huge boost by being seen as the underdog in 2004, he may be thinking that it won't do him any harm this time either. Hence the coy refusal to say what everybody else is assuming: candidate S is SBY himself...

But back to the statement from Andi Malarangeng who helpfully explained that the president had made the statement to ensure the events of 2004, for which he had forgiven those responsible, were not repeated. At the risk of pointing out the obvious, not only did a candidate with the initial 'B' not even make it to the first round, but SBY actually won. What part of that doesn't he want repeated?