Predictions

I suppose I should put my money where my keyboard is and come up with some sort of prediction of what will happen as a result of the legislative election today.

I think incumbent President SBY's Democratic Party will come out with the largest share of the vote, largely because of the incumbent advantage. They've consistently had around 20% of the vote in the unrigged opinion polls, and this would translate into around a third of seats in the House of Representatives. That's enough to qualify for the right to nominate SBY as president again. I reckon a coalition with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) is on the cards for the presidential vote - possibly with Tifatul Sembiring as the running mate.

I think Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and VP Jusuf Kalla's Golkar will each get about 15% - and just under a quarter of the seats in the House, meaning they'll have to join forces (but both want to be president!) or team up with an Islamist party each for the presidential race - possibly the United Development Party (PPP), who may still come fourth despite an incredibly low profile campaign.

There may well be enough National Awakening Party (PKB) voters in East Java to win fifth place for the party, followed by the PKS in the vote tally.

Then there are the vehicles of dubious former generals Prabowo (Gerindra Party) and Wiranto (Hanura Party). Due to the sheer flood of glossy TV ads with promises of cash to farmers and fisherman and the not-so-subtle playing of the anti-ethnic-Chinese card, Gerindra may come in seventh, or possibly fifth or sixth on name recognition alone, given the confusing array of 38 parties on the king-sized ballot paper. As for Hanura, well their recent ads have focused less on policies and more on how to find the party symbol on the ballot paper, so their being first on the list may help them to eighth place. They may still lose out to the fading National Mandate Party (PAN) though.

All in all, Pemiloopy beleives that only eight, or possibly nine, parties will pass the threshold of 2.5% necessary to be awarded seats in the legislature. Then the fun and games will really start...