Anyone But Jokowi

So the counting is underway, presumably. Unlike every previous election, even in the bad old days of the New Order, there have been no updates of the votes so far. Optimists will say this is no problem - after all the results aren't due to be announced until the beginning of May, so the General Elections Commission is just doing its job in completely unprecedented, but entirely legal, secrecy.

However, it is important to remember that people like Golkar leader Aburizal Bakrie and Gerindra leader Prabowo must be absolutely desperate to stop the wildly popular Jokowi from entering the presidential race because they would lose. Although the political elite in Jakarta think that the selection of the country's leader is up to them, rather than the people, in 20o9 the electorate reelected current president SBY because most people genuinely wanted him to win. This has terrified the elite, who are faced with the prospect of surrendering the choice of leader to the people. And given a choice, they are likely to pick the Indonesian Party of Struggle's (PDIP) candidate, Jokowi, in the presidential election on 9 July.

So, how to stop him? In the old days, it was just a matter of fiddling the count. However, thanks to a number of quick count results announced shortly after the legislative election polls closed, that won't be so easy. If the final vote of any of the major parties turns out to be wildly different from the quick count results, all of which are in reasonable agreement, everybody will cry foul.

In order to nominate a presidential candidate, a party must either win 25% of the popular vote in the legislative elections (none did) or control 20% of the seats in the legislature, the DPR. That would be 112 seats. Parties are allowed to join together to make up either total. Therefore to stop the PDIP nominating Jokowi, the other parties have to ensure it cannot find enough support from other parties. The easiest way to do this is for the two richest parties (with the two most desperate presidential wannabes) to simply pay off the other parties so they won't join the PDIP coalition. But...ooops. The Nasdem Party vehicle of media tycoon Suraya Paloh has announced it will back Jokowi. The total vote of the PDIP + Nasdem is around 26%, which is just enough. Surya Paloh is so rich that he'd probably prefer political power to even more money, making him immune to bribes that Golkar or Gerindra could afford. And since Nasdem has cracked, other minor parties may well feel that it's too late, and they might as well join the PDIP - except for the terminally foolish United Development Party (PPP), which has just been overruled by its leader and has backed Jokowi.

Option 2 then is to stop the PDIP (and now Nasdem) from getting their 112 seats. One way to do this would be to play games with the vote shares at the provincial level to ensure that the national share of the vote still agrees with the quick counts, but that the PDIP + Nasdem don't win, thanks to the complex way these things are worked out.

For them to get away with this, there would have to be no announcements at all about the ongoing count so they have time to fiddle things between the count being finished and the results being announced...

Now what?

So the voting has come and gone for most areas, apart from the odd mix-up. No sign of any counting so far, which is rather odd...

Nobody got the 25 percent of the vote they needed to nominate the president of their choice. The biggest surprise was the poor performance of the Indonesian Party of Struggle (PDI-P): the much talked about "Jokowi effect" - a magical rise in their fortunes as a result of nominating the popular governor of Jakarta for the presidency - didn't really happen. According to the "quick count" result, the party got around 19%, little better than in 2004, and the 33% of 1999 seems to have been an all-time high for the party. Or perhaps the Jokowi effect was little more than a minor reversal of the PDI-P''s decline.

In any case, they stuffed it up. At the start of the campaign, all the PDI-P TV ads featured party chairwoman Megawati's daughter Puan, who is little more than a thinner and slightly less stupid version of her mother. Perhaps the PDI-P looked at the results of its private polling and had a bit of a panic at the projected vote for Mussolini wannabee Prabowo's Gerindra Party vehicle, so hastily nominated Jokowi for the top job. By then it was too late, and the party didn't do nearly as well as Mega had hoped.

Meanwhile, the Islamist parties, having been written off by many (including me, ahem!) did better than expected. This may be the result of a very low turnout, with only the loyal supporters of the minor parties (including startup Nasdem) having bothered to turn out. Those who voted for the major parties last time may well have stayed at home in disgust, and the percentage of the vote (not the actual number of votes) of the small parties rose as a result.

And now who gets to run for the presidency. History tells us that the PDI-P will find an Islamist non-entity to run as vice-president alongside the nationalist Jokowi. But the PDI-P may well be tempted to sidle up to the National Awakening Party (PKB), which seems to have won around 9%, presumably mostly in its East Java stronghold. Despite not having a serious presidential candidate (singer Rhoma Irama?! Please!), 19+9=28. The PDI-P may well feel the need to recruit more widely, perhaps flirting with media tycoon Surya Paloh's Nasdem Party vehicle. That should produce some sympathetic coverage on Surya's Metro TV.

Meanwhile the Golkar Party may end up getting into bed with Prabowo's Gerindra Party and a few other minnows. Insanely presidency-obsessed Prabowo may settle for the vice-presidential spot if Golkar leader Bakrie provides a cast-iron promise to support Prabowo for the presidency in 2014. Bakrie will then have 5 years to think of a way to break that promise, which should be plenty of time.

Nothing, even the turnout, is certain yet, because of the strange silence from the General Elections Commission. Unlike previous years, there have been no announcements at all about the interim count - not even from the capital, where the process should be easier. All rather odd...

Farewell to an Honest Politician

Abdurrahman ad-Dakhil Wahid, better known as Gus Dur, Indonesia's fourth president, died on 30 December 2009. The timing of his departure must have given those compilers of "Review of the Year" a bit of a headache as he would have missed the boat. In Indonesia, the effects were apparent in wall-to-wall TV coverage and the cancellation of a few new year fireworks displays. And of course the inevitable silly murder rumors - as if that would be worth doing now.

But he left an important legacy. Not the National Awakening Party (PKB), which resumed its civil war before he was cold in the grave, and which seems destined to shrivel away like other Indonesian political parties built around a popular figure (are you listening Megawati and SBY?). And not in any great oratory to be quoted down the years (except Gitu aja? Kok repot? [Is that all? Why such a fuss?]). Gus Dur stands out because he may have been Indonesia's only honest politician.

Despite the poor reputation of politicians, they don't lie all the time. There are three types of political lie: the factual lie (Example: Indonesian students burned down the Senen market in 1974 - it was actually the military trying to discredit protesting students); lies of opinion or belief (I really care about the people - Example: just about everything Suharto said) and lies about intentions (ditto). Of these three, in democracies, the first kind is the most risky because things get found out. If they do come to light, it's often the end of a political career (but not always). The latter two are impossible to prove either way because opinions are unprovable and because "the best laid plans of mice and men..." respectively.

But Gus Dur appears to have avoided lying almost entirely. Of course he had his flaky moments, and arguably describing the House of Representatives (DPR) as a "kindergarten" was a factual lie - they are nowhere near as well-behaved as infants - but he seems to have been honest in all he said - even if it was destined to land him in trouble.

He protested about the actions of the dictator Suharto - by direct letter on occasion. And during his presidency, he went to East Timor to apologize for Indonesia's occupation, he threw an extremist Muslim leader out of the palace halfway through an audience, he tried to have the antiquated ban on even discussing communism lifted, he visited Israel, he made Chinese New Year a public holiday and lifted the New Order racist ban on the use of Chinese characters, and he made lots of good jokes. And all the time, he said what he thought.

He paid a heavy price for speaking his mind. Not only did the Indonesian "Military" oversee his downfall from the presidency in 2002, allowing his replacement by the more malleable Megawati, but a mysterious car crash in the 1990s paralyzed his wife. Ironically, Gus Dur's own father died in a car crash - perhaps that's where the idea came from...

There are many self-serving Indonesian politicians who would do well to follow the example of Gus Dur. Don't lie about your income, origins, convictions (moral and criminal), intentions, number of wives or past. You may be surprised how much good it does you.

Bye bye Gus Dur. Indonesia is a sadder place without you.

Phew!

So it's all over. The Constitutional Court decided the voters (and all the polls, before and after the vote) were right and Megawati and Jusuf Kalla and their running mates with dodgy human rights records lost.

True to past form, Megawati's supporters ran riot, starting fires in the street and causing traffic jams as is their wont whenever Mega fails to become president. Strangely Kompas newspaper failed to report the disturbances - it must have cost the PDIP - Mega's party - a fortune to keep that out of the press. Megawati herself is sulking as usual, and has said nothing beyond a grudging statement that she "understood" the verdict, which given her famously limited intellectual capacity is perhaps the most we could hope for. Her running mate Prabowo must be seething. He put so much money into the campaign (or rather his brother did) and it was all for nothing. Of course there is a chance that Prabowo will try again in 2014.

And that's not really an option for Jusuf Kalla, Megawati or Wiranto, who will be 72, 67 and 67 respectively come the next election. Kalla has said he would go back to his home town if he lost, and Mega has implied she wouldn't try again if defeated. Wiranto might have another go, but voters may scorn a two-time loser (hear that Mega?).

Given that Jusuf Kalla stood on a Golkar Party ticket against President SBY, it's possible there will be no seats for that party in SBY's new cabinet, which is presumably why current Coordinating Minister and mega-tycoon Aburizal Bakrie is frantically trying to get the party chairmanship following Kalla's resignation. After all his Epicentrum construction project is in trouble and he needs a key positon to ensure he has enough clout to keep the creditors at bay....

Meanwhile the head of the incompetent General Elections Commission (KPU), Abdul Hafiz Anshary, has refused to resign, saying that to do so would break the law as Law No. 22/2007 says KPU members only step down if they are sick, die or are fired...

The election may be over (even though the fat lady hasn't sung), but politics continues...

NOT FAIR .. I want to be president!

So SBY won, as predicted. Ex general Subianto Prabowo, who owns 90 horses but has been promoting himself a champion of the poor, and who bought himself a vice-presidential ticket from Megawati Sukarnoputri has not stopped sulking since the opinion polls during the campaign showed he and his has-been sidekick were not managing to bribe their way to popularity. Then came the quick count polls on election day that showed SBY with just over 60%, Mega-Prabowo with around 37% and the joke pairing of Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto on 12%. NOT FAIR - the polls have been fixed, cried the disgraced former general. Then the results started trickling in showing similar figures. Prabowo then accused the Gneeral Election Commission of fixing the results to match the quick count polls, claiming that he had a poll showing very different numbers. And finally the General Elections Commission announced the final result: SBY with just over 60%, Mega-Prabowo with around 37% and the joke pairing of Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto on 12%.

In a sulk, Megafatty and Prabowo refused to attend the announcement of the results - at least Kalla and Wiranto turned up for that - and now both pairs of losers plan to contest the result. What does Prabowo want? The results of the poll he commissioned to be used as the official result, or a rerun of the poll? He'd take the first option if he could and does not seem to realize that he'd lose a rerun because the people are not as stupid as he hopes they are, and would rightly punish him for being such a poor loser. He does of course have Megawati to learn from in that regard. Having failed to be crowned president in 1999, she settled for the number two job until she could work with her former enemies in the military to oust poor old Gus Dur and claim the top job just like Daddy. She then did nothing for three years and was defeated in the 2004 presidential election. She didn't accept that result either and refused to speak to, yet alone congratulate her successor.

So despite the statements that all candidates were prepared to accept victory or defeat, the childish actions of the losers show them to be unfit for the jobs they failed to get. Phew!

Putting the Boot in

The election campaign is well underway, and dear me! What a bore. The problem is that all the candidates are terrified of saying anything they could be attacked for, so are sticking to safe ground. The first presidential debate was a classic example. Former (failed) president Megawati actually did rather well, saying more in one evening than she said during her who pitiful two years in the palace. Anyway after a two-minute waffle about overseas workers, President SBY actually said he "agreed with her 200%". Hmm. Hardly a war of words. Incidentally Megawati seems to be running the same campaign as her (failed) attempt to get reelected in 2004 when she went on and on about how she was the prettiest candidate (like this time, the others were all men you see). If she makes the joke ONE MORE TIME, Pemiloopy is going to feature an unkind jibe about the size of her behind.

Anyway, in the absence of any real debates, thank Dawkins there is some entertainment to be had. It's known as "black campaigning", and it's much more fun that the ordinary kind. For example, because they are too frightened to attack SBY directly because he is too popular (yes, I know how weird that sounds), his opponents have decided his mild-mannered running mate Boediono is fair game. So what have they come up with? "He's a neoliberal!" Gosh. What's that then? Well, it's something to do with the free market (you know, not subsidizing fuel for rich car owners or trying to buck the market). Presumably they sat down and thought this one up together. What has Boediono done to deserve this heinous insult? Not sure, but it seems he got a PhD from the Wharton School of Economics, which is a FOREIGN place. Even then, it doesn't add up. In the first place, when he was finance minister, Boediono was responsible for paying off lots of Indonesia's foreign debt (accumulated due to the incompetence of Kalla's Golkar Party) and twice substantially reduced inflation. And he helped invent something called Pancasila Economics, which is based on the village system and is aimed at reducing inequality.

In more "black campaigning":

• Boediono's wife is not really a Muslim, and may even be a Catholic (too silly for words)
• Megawati sold off national assets when she was president (er... true, but necessary)
• Both SBY and his running mate are Javanese (er... true but so what)
• Wiranto was involved in human rights violations in the past (see above)
• Prabowo has dual-nationality (not true, and why on earth would it matter?)
• SBY and Boediono's wives don't wear the Islamic headscarf (true, but so what?)
• Prabowo is immensely rich, but is proposing a "people's economy (OK, that one's true)
• Kalla's companies would become nepotistic and corrupt if he is elected (become?)
• Prabowo was involved in human rights violations in the past (duh...)
• SBY is a ditherer who finds it hard to make decisions (true)

You see. Much more fun that agreeing with each other 200%

The Things They Say (3)

Ex-general Wiranto guested on a chat show last week on Metro TV, a station owned by Suarya Paloh, a key figure in the Golkar Party (the vehicle of president Suharto during Indonesia's New Order military dictatorship). Wiranto is running for vice-president, despite saying he only wanted the top job (see Number Ones Only Please) - the presidential candidate is chair of er... the Golkar Party. Well, that explains the fawning and sycophantic nature of the interviewer.

Anyway, Wiranto was asked how he came to have so much money. "I was surprised to find myself so rich", he purred. Apparently he scraped together Rp81 billion (around US$8 million) from his meager salary as Army commander to buy a few parcels of land, and inflation did the rest.

Anyway, on to the thorny question of human rights. "Are you a human rights abuser?" smiled Andy F. Noya, the friendly interviewer. Shameful as it is to report, the audience laughed!! Perhaps there is something funny about murdering people, burning their homes, pouring concrete in irrigation ditches and herding thousands of people across the border that had escaped me...

Anyway, back to the ex-general. After saying that claims made at the time of his unsuccessful 2004 presidential bid were no longer valid, he had the bare-faced cheek to claim he had never been indicted. Hmmm. Let's have a look at The Guardian dated 25 February 2003. In case any Wiranto fans are too lazy to use their right fingers for anything other than shooting unarmed civilians, allow me to reproduce the headline here:

UN indicts general for East Timor crimes
Clear enough. That makes the above quite a lie. Murdering pig.

No Islam Please, We're Nationalists

Indonesia's electors seem to have tired of Islamic parties. In the recent legislative elections, the major Islamic parties won just under 30% of the vote, and 164 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2004, they won over 40% of the vote and 231 seats. And in the forthcoming presidential election, there are no candidates from Islamic parties - defying the conventional wisdom (as applied in 2004) that a Nationalist-Islamist mix is best.

Voters are apparently disillusioned with the Islamists for two reasons. Firstly, despite their religious credentials, they have turned out to be no less susceptible to the temptations of corruption and the flesh - or both in at least one case. Secondly in those areas where they control the local legislature, they have shown a disturbing tendency to impose variants of Islamic Shariah law. On a national level, they pushed for the Pornography Law, which threatens to outlaw harmless activities such as Balinese women wearing little above the waist and everybody doing yoga. However President SBY supported this law in the hope of gaining support from the Islamist parties and their voters. Oops. The latest demonstration of the odd obsessions of the Islamic authorities here is their ongoing debate about whether to rule against Facebook on the grounds of its immoral pictures of women, which may corrupt the morals of young men in Islamic Boarding schools (who by all accounts access as much porn as they can whenever they get their hands on an internet-equipped computer).

Although SBY was at pains to point out the Islamic faith of his running mate in the lavish declaration of his candidacy, partly to pacify the Islamic parties in his coalition who were sulking because one of their number was not recruited for the number two job, nobody seems to mind. We can expect to see high-profile visits to mosques and other demonstrations of piety by candidates (by the way, aren't crimes against humanity against Islamic law?), but it looks as if politics and Islam are going their separate ways. Good.

Coalitionism

You've got to feel sorry for Vice-president and Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla. He's got a tough choice to make. It's looking like Golkar won't make the 20% of votes needed to be able to nominate their presidential candidate, i.e. Jusuf Kalla. So he has two options: try and form a coalition with one or more other parties, or crawl back to President SBY and ask if he can be VP again (not president, and he is 68). The thing is, the first option means he may end up with nothing, and the second means he will almost certainly get his old job back. So what's it to be, JK?

The other parties are also in a bit of a fix. Traditionally (well OK, in 2004) the thinking is that the president and vice-president should be a nationalist-Islam pairing. So where does Megawati's PDI-P look for a VP to keep Mega company? Golkar is nationalist, so are Gerindra and Hanura. The best bet for Golkar and the PDI-P would be the squeaky clean Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), but unless President SBY is a complete fool, he will team up with the PKS (and run on an anti-corruption ticket). Among the Islamist parties, there is the United Development Party (PPP), but it's in decline and is looking increasingly tired and, frankly, old hat. What about the National Awakening Party (now without Mega's enemy Gus Dur)? The combined PDIP and PKB vote might just be enough to make the 20% , but both are very Java-centric parties, and may not carry the non-Java vote. And the National Mandate Party (PAN) has such an elitist and over-critical image that any pairing with Golkar (the New Order party that PAN opposed during the reform euphoria of the late 90s) or the PDI-P would be such breathtaking opportunism that Indonesia's voters might well see right through them.

So where does that leave Gerindra and Hanura? Leaving aside the fact that Indonesians may not want a war criminal as president, both parties may find themselves out of friends, or fighting tooth and nail (party leaders Prabowo and Wiranto hate each other) to attract enough parties to cobble together a coalition.

Whatever happens, there will be lots of humbug, hypocrisy, legal challenges to the election result and squabbles over the few months until the presidential election. Watch this space.

Predictions

I suppose I should put my money where my keyboard is and come up with some sort of prediction of what will happen as a result of the legislative election today.

I think incumbent President SBY's Democratic Party will come out with the largest share of the vote, largely because of the incumbent advantage. They've consistently had around 20% of the vote in the unrigged opinion polls, and this would translate into around a third of seats in the House of Representatives. That's enough to qualify for the right to nominate SBY as president again. I reckon a coalition with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) is on the cards for the presidential vote - possibly with Tifatul Sembiring as the running mate.

I think Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and VP Jusuf Kalla's Golkar will each get about 15% - and just under a quarter of the seats in the House, meaning they'll have to join forces (but both want to be president!) or team up with an Islamist party each for the presidential race - possibly the United Development Party (PPP), who may still come fourth despite an incredibly low profile campaign.

There may well be enough National Awakening Party (PKB) voters in East Java to win fifth place for the party, followed by the PKS in the vote tally.

Then there are the vehicles of dubious former generals Prabowo (Gerindra Party) and Wiranto (Hanura Party). Due to the sheer flood of glossy TV ads with promises of cash to farmers and fisherman and the not-so-subtle playing of the anti-ethnic-Chinese card, Gerindra may come in seventh, or possibly fifth or sixth on name recognition alone, given the confusing array of 38 parties on the king-sized ballot paper. As for Hanura, well their recent ads have focused less on policies and more on how to find the party symbol on the ballot paper, so their being first on the list may help them to eighth place. They may still lose out to the fading National Mandate Party (PAN) though.

All in all, Pemiloopy beleives that only eight, or possibly nine, parties will pass the threshold of 2.5% necessary to be awarded seats in the legislature. Then the fun and games will really start...

How to say nothing in 76 words...

Now that Jusuf Kalla has decided he simply can't wait until 2014 for a crack at the presidency, he has two problems: 1) how to ensure Golkar (which presumably will nominate him) gets enough votes (20%) in the legislative elections and 2) who to choose as his running mate.

Perhaps in an effort to tackle the first difficulty while overlooking the second, Vice-president Jusuf Kalla met ex-president (and ex-VP) (and rival presidential candidate) Megawati Sukarnoputri on 12 March at her place. They were photographed holding up important-looking copies of the "Two Figures Agreement". So what specific points did these political heavyweights come up with. Er... none.

Here is what they agreed (stifle those yawns):
1. To build a strong government to bring about the development of the nation and prosperity for the people.
2. The strengthen the presidential system of government in accordance with the mandate of the 1945 Constitution that has a strong basis of support in the House of Representatives.
3. To strengthen the economic system to implement an economic program that is sovereign, independent and is oriented towards the interests of the people.
4. To bring about closer political communication between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the Golkar Party as a manifestation of the responsibility of the two largest parties in the 1999 and 2004 elections.
5. To ensure the successful organization of the 2009 elections that are honest, fair, direct, general, free and secret, as well as safe and prestigious.

Hmmm. So 76 words (OK, some numbers) of nothing. Slightly change the wording of point 4 and this could have been written by any two political parties in Indonesia, past or present (including the banned Communist Party of Indonesia). Or change the Indonesia-specific references and the Democrats and Republicans in the US or the Conservatives and Labour in the UK or even Zanu-PF and the MDC in Zimbabwe could produce an almost identical document.

So what's the point? In the words of an SMS contributor in Kompas newspaper on 14 March, "It's impossible for Megawati to be on the same ticket as Jusuf Kalla! Unless Indonesia has two presidents. Which of them wants to be vice-president?"

There is no way Megawati will take the number two job, and why on earth would Jusuf Kalla abandon current president SBY, for the VP job with somebody else who is less likely to win. Surely he's not THAT stupid..

Or could this be incredibly short term political expediency so both parties win lots of seats in the legislature and then quietly forget their alliance? Any possible answers to this puzzle gratefully accepted...

Number Ones Only Please

John Nance Garner IV, the 32nd Vice-president of the United States, once described the number two job as "not worth a bucket of warm piss". Indonesia's politicians seem to agree – nobody wants to be VP.

Article 9 of Law No.42/2008 on the Presidential Election states “Candidate pairs [president and vice-president] shall be proposed by political parties or groupings of political parties fulfilling the condition that they win at least 20 percent of the seats in the [House of Representatives] or obtain at least 25 percent of valid votes nationally in the [House of Representatives] election, before the organization of the election for president and vice-president”

Even if there was an exact four-way split in the national vote, with four parties winning 25.00000%, the maximum number of candidates would be four. Or, according to the legislature seats criteria, if five parties win 112 seats each, there would be five. But at the risk of pointing out the obvious, this is not going to happen. Assuming President SBY's Democratic Party, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle and Vice-president Yusuf Kalla's Golkar can wrap up 60 percent of the vote between them, that only leaves 40 percent or so – or one candidate's-worth (assuming Golkar either come up with their own candidate or back SBY-Jusuf Kalla). Hanura's Wiranto and Gerindra's Prabowo hate each other, so a team-up there is out of the question – and neither seem likely to win 25 percent of the vote without massive vote-buying.

So, with so few possibilities for the top job, it may be a choice between vice-president or nothing. It looks as if some of the current self-proclaimed presidential candidates will have to eat humble pie, or hope that nobody remembers how they said they only wanted to be president. Should that day dawn, here are the quotes that could come to haunt them:

On January 4, 2009, in Jakarta, Wiranto said, “I have nominated myself as a presidential candidate, not as a vice-presidential candidate” (Surabaya Post online, 24/1/09)

Way back on October 31, 2008, “independent” (i.e. party-less) former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso, said in Makassar “If I am now offered a vice-presidential candidateship, I am not prepared [to accept it]. I am not belittling the position, but I have a different character. I am a commander, I have been a commander many times. My character was formed like that. I am a maker of policy.” (Kompas online 31/10/08)

On February 4, 2009, in Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengku Buwono X stated he did not want to stand for the vice-presidency, saying, “I have put myself forward as a presidential candidate because so many letters from North Sumatra to Papua have urged me to become a presidential candidate, not a vice-presidential candidate” (Kompas online, 5/2/09)

Others are more shrewd, allowing others to deny they want the VP job, perhaps paving the way for strategic U-turns later. For example, Prabowo's trusted friend and Gerindra Party vice-chairman Fadli Zion said on January 27 in Lampung, “from the beginning, for us, Pak Prabowo is a presidential candidate, not a vice-presidential candidate.” He also said that any offers from presidential candidates wanting Prabowo as their running mate would be “rejected outright” (Lampung Post online, 28/1/09)

So assuming Jusuf Kalla, about the only politician in Indonesia who has not said he won't take the VP job, sticks with SBY in return for an endorsement in 2014, it looks like the other vice-presidential candidates will be non-entities or people with their mouths full of humble pie.

ABS Slows President

Is it a rumor or a rumor of a rumor? Or a rumor that the rumor of a rumor is not true - it is merely a rumor? Nobody seems sure. Here's how it all started:

On 29 January, President SBY gave a speech in front of 200 soldiers and police officers in which he said "I heard a rumor that senior Army officers are saying ABS, anybody but presidential candidate S. There are also senior police officers that have joined the campaign team of presidential candidate X. I am certain this information is not true. I am certain this information is not true. "

So why mention it then? Well, it seems that the president is worried that the events of 2004 will be repeated. As his presidential spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, explained on 2 February, "it is an open secret that members of the military and the National Police were active in campaigning for presidential candidate B in 2004". (Note: the candidates in 2004 were Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Wiranto, Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz

So far so weird. Everybody (ahem!) seems to have something to say about the ABS rumor (the abbreviation works in Indonesian as well). First into the fray was the Indonesian Military commander, General Djoko Santoso, who said he knew nothing of the rumor (well he would....). On 29 January, National Police chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri categorically denied any of his officers were involved and insisted the brownshirts would be neutral. Over the next few days, politicians made predictable statements about how naughty the president was to go spreading rumors like that. The military meanwhile repeatedly insisted it was neutral.

Of course, as the saying goes, a good trick is worth doing twice. Given that SBY received a huge boost by being seen as the underdog in 2004, he may be thinking that it won't do him any harm this time either. Hence the coy refusal to say what everybody else is assuming: candidate S is SBY himself...

But back to the statement from Andi Malarangeng who helpfully explained that the president had made the statement to ensure the events of 2004, for which he had forgiven those responsible, were not repeated. At the risk of pointing out the obvious, not only did a candidate with the initial 'B' not even make it to the first round, but SBY actually won. What part of that doesn't he want repeated?

Never Mind Principles: I want to be President!

Politics is back. The eye is still on the big prize, but political campaigning of a sort is underway. After the Prosperous Justice Party grabbed some of the limelight with a TV ad portraying ex-president Suharto as a national hero, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle has joined the fray. It has been running ads in the papers promising cheap groceries for those little people it purports to support. The idea is of course to ensure that ex-president Megawati Sukarnoputri gets another go at the job. Never mind that in her previous term in office, she conspicuously failed to do anything for the little people (staying silent when Indonesian workers were expelled from Malaysia and only reluctantly visiting Bali after the 2002 bomb killed 38 Indonesians in the province that is home to her most loyal supporters). One of her most shameless acts was to help ensure retired general Sutiyoso won a second term as Jakarta governor despite the fact he was military commander of Jakarta in 1996 when troops stormed the offices of Megawati's breakaway wing of her party, killing many of her devoted followers. Then, according to one story, after her defeat she tried to sabotage the state budget by removing subsidies FOR THE POOR to make things difficult for her successor, but was talked out of it.

And now she may be up to her old opportunist tricks again. Rumors abound that she is considering retired general Subianto Prabowo as her running mate, despite the fact he was commander of the Kopassus "special forces" troops allegedly involved in the disappearances of pro-democracy activists (including her supporters!) in the last days of Suharto's regime. If it's not Prabowo (a really nasty piece of work if there ever was one), could she really be thinking of teaming up with Golkar? It was during Golkar's heyday in power that she was deposed as leader of her party as she was getting too popular.

But forget the little people, forget what her new friends did to those who stood by her in the dark days of the New Order. The important thing is to get to the palace and spend another term cutting ribbons and doing little else.

By the way, if she does win, look out for a constitutional crisis if she wants to stay in office for a second term. Article 7 of the Constitution states, "The President and Vice President hold office for a term of five years and can afterwards be elected to the same office, for one other term only", but she didn't serve a full term first time....

That Other Election

Indonesia has temporarily forgotten all about its own election to focus all its attention on events the other side of the world, presumably to the puzzlement of people who think their own problems are more worthy of attention than those of the USA.

If you thought the global coverage of Obama's victory was hysterical ("On every level America will be changed by this result - its impact will be so profound that the nation will never be the same."said the BBC. Hmm. Including the geology? And of course it won't - nowhere ever is! It's called entropy), come to Indonesia. As the young Obama spent time in Jakarta - his mother remarried an Indonesian and moved here - the Indonesian media rapidly abandoned all pretense of impartiality and devoted pages and pages (and hours and hours) to their adopted son. As a result, the opinion on news portal detik.com (which they shrewdly started charging people to vote on!) saw McCain's rating at around 7% right until polling day. The fact that Obama's father was Muslim sealed it for many.

And this really shows the lack of political maturity among many here. In the same way that Megawati Sukarnoputri is wildly popular because she is the daughter of Indonesia's founding president, Obama is popular because he once lived in Jakarta and had a Muslim father. Never mind the issues.... For example his stance on abortion is at odds with the majority opinion here.

And more to the point, what are the odds that an ethnic Chinese Indonesian, or a non-Muslim Indonesian, will ever become president? And will losing candidates ever learn to accept defeat graciously? Not if the last election is anything to go by. Losing candidate Megawati went into a sulk, and refused to concede defeat, saying that she had not lost, merely experienced a drop in her vote.

Anyway, congratulations to Barack Obama, and commiserations to John McCain. You can both teach Indonesia a lot about winning and losing.

Remember the legislative election anyone?

According to a survey by Kompas newspaper last week, only 20 percent of Indonesian voters know that the legislative elections will be held in April 2009. And it's not surprising. After a flurry of interest (in the form of celebs and flags) politicians and commentators seem to have lost interest in the elections to the House of Representatives and to be focusing all their attention on the real prize: the presidential palace.


On Wednesday 29 October, the House more or less agreed on the formula for the Presidential Election Law. The parties with the largest share of seats in the House agreed that presidential candidates can be nominated by parties or groupings of parties with at last 25 percent of seats in the House or that won at least 20 percent of the vote in the legislative election. This will mean no more than three or four candidate pairings. The National Mandate Party, which doesn't stand a chance of winning this many votes or seats on its own, is still sulking and a judicial review is not out of the question. Meanwhile the United Development Party (currently with 11% of seats) has said that it is "attracted" to incumbent president SBY as a candidate because if his anti-corruption efforts. SBY may need the help of a large party as his Democratic Party vehicle (currently with 10% of seats) is likely to need help to get him reelected. And in other developments (as they say), Golkar (23% of seats) and the other front-runner, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) (20%) seem to be getting closer.

But in the midst of all this bickering and flirting, everybody seems to have forgotten the legislative vote comes first. The date for the presidential poll has not even been set yet...

Youth

The issue of the moment: it's time for a young leader. Most of the candidates for the presidency are no longer in the first flush of youth. The incumbent, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is 59; his vice-president, Jusuf Kalla, is 66; former president Megawati Sukarnoputri is 61, as is UN-indicted former general Wiranto. Older still are the sultan of Yogykarta at 62 and former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso at 64. Disgraced former general Prabowo is bringing up the rear at a mere 58.

So, goes the cry, it's time to give the youth a chance. This may be reinforced by the fact that most of the aforementioned candidates stood in 2004, giving the impression that they are closing the door on the next generation.

Any young candidates? Well, there is Soetrisno Bachir - a mere adolescent of 51 and Hidayat Nur Wahid is 48. And the candidate who is shouting loudest for a chance for the young: Rizal Mallarangeng (44), who was apparently inspired by Barrack Obama's appeal among the younger generation.

So what do the older generation say when this issue is raised. Well, it's all rather awkward. You see they have spent lots of time (and money?) to get where they are, and are not about to give way to a bunch of whippersnappers. They give coy replies about experience (er... Indonesia's first president, Sukarno, was 45 when he came to office and Suharto was 46) and then say they'll wait until after the legislative elections. They may deign to run with a youthful vice-president, but like naughty children, we will have to wait and see.

Learning from the mistakes of others

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has said today, 29 September, that he is "God willing" to stand for re-election next year "probably" with Vice-president Jusuf Kalla as his running mate.

In the 2004 presidential election, Vice-president Hamzah Haz got a bit carried away (or perhaps just plain greedy) and decided to stand against the encumbent president Megawati Sukarnoputri, leaving Mega to scramble around for a suitable Islamic runing mate to complement her nationalist credientials. Predictably he obtained a pitiful 3% of the vote - amd Mega lost too. Had Hamzah Haz shown a little more patience and struck a deal with Mega, they might have been re-elected, then he could have had her blessing for the top job next time.

Jusuf Kalla seems to have learned this lesson. Could it be that he has agreed to put his Golkar Party behind SBY in return for an endorsement for the presidency in 2014?

Presidential hopefuls

Once the legislative (DPR) elections are out of the way the real fun begins. Indonesia's second presidential elections will be held around July 5, 2009. The presidential election law is not ready yet, but it looks like parties or groups of parties who get 20-30% of the vote in the DPR election will be allowed to nominate candidates.

The likely candidates:
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) - incumbent. Nominated by his Democrat Party vehicle. Will probably need support from other parties. His party will be lucky to win 20% of the vote in the legisaltive election.
Megawati Sukarnoputri - former president, defeated because she did bog all while in office. Her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle should pick up 20-30% of the vote
Jusuf Kalla - current vice-president. Likely to be too greedy and impatient to accept the VP job again in return for supporting SBY and in turn get SBY's support for the presidency in 2014. His Holkar Party should get 20-30% of votes in the DPR election.
Wiranto - indicted war criminal (for crimes in East Timor) - nominated by his Hanura Party vehicle, which may attract 15-20% of the vote campaigning on an anti-foreigner ticket
Soetrisno Bachir - businessman and chairman of the National mandate Party (PAN) - may pick up the Islamist nomination

Also rans:
Prabowo Soebianto - disgraced former general. Has been advertising a lot on TV, but his party vehicle (Gerindra) is too small. Possible VP candidate
Sutiyoso - disgraced former governor of Jakarta. Doesn't have a party vehicle and may have left it too late
Yusril Ihza Mahendra - disgraced former minister. Possible token Muslim VP for a nationalist candidate
Akbar Tandjung - oh dear me. Just Google the guy!