Anyone But Jokowi

So the counting is underway, presumably. Unlike every previous election, even in the bad old days of the New Order, there have been no updates of the votes so far. Optimists will say this is no problem - after all the results aren't due to be announced until the beginning of May, so the General Elections Commission is just doing its job in completely unprecedented, but entirely legal, secrecy.

However, it is important to remember that people like Golkar leader Aburizal Bakrie and Gerindra leader Prabowo must be absolutely desperate to stop the wildly popular Jokowi from entering the presidential race because they would lose. Although the political elite in Jakarta think that the selection of the country's leader is up to them, rather than the people, in 20o9 the electorate reelected current president SBY because most people genuinely wanted him to win. This has terrified the elite, who are faced with the prospect of surrendering the choice of leader to the people. And given a choice, they are likely to pick the Indonesian Party of Struggle's (PDIP) candidate, Jokowi, in the presidential election on 9 July.

So, how to stop him? In the old days, it was just a matter of fiddling the count. However, thanks to a number of quick count results announced shortly after the legislative election polls closed, that won't be so easy. If the final vote of any of the major parties turns out to be wildly different from the quick count results, all of which are in reasonable agreement, everybody will cry foul.

In order to nominate a presidential candidate, a party must either win 25% of the popular vote in the legislative elections (none did) or control 20% of the seats in the legislature, the DPR. That would be 112 seats. Parties are allowed to join together to make up either total. Therefore to stop the PDIP nominating Jokowi, the other parties have to ensure it cannot find enough support from other parties. The easiest way to do this is for the two richest parties (with the two most desperate presidential wannabes) to simply pay off the other parties so they won't join the PDIP coalition. But...ooops. The Nasdem Party vehicle of media tycoon Suraya Paloh has announced it will back Jokowi. The total vote of the PDIP + Nasdem is around 26%, which is just enough. Surya Paloh is so rich that he'd probably prefer political power to even more money, making him immune to bribes that Golkar or Gerindra could afford. And since Nasdem has cracked, other minor parties may well feel that it's too late, and they might as well join the PDIP - except for the terminally foolish United Development Party (PPP), which has just been overruled by its leader and has backed Jokowi.

Option 2 then is to stop the PDIP (and now Nasdem) from getting their 112 seats. One way to do this would be to play games with the vote shares at the provincial level to ensure that the national share of the vote still agrees with the quick counts, but that the PDIP + Nasdem don't win, thanks to the complex way these things are worked out.

For them to get away with this, there would have to be no announcements at all about the ongoing count so they have time to fiddle things between the count being finished and the results being announced...

Now what?

So the voting has come and gone for most areas, apart from the odd mix-up. No sign of any counting so far, which is rather odd...

Nobody got the 25 percent of the vote they needed to nominate the president of their choice. The biggest surprise was the poor performance of the Indonesian Party of Struggle (PDI-P): the much talked about "Jokowi effect" - a magical rise in their fortunes as a result of nominating the popular governor of Jakarta for the presidency - didn't really happen. According to the "quick count" result, the party got around 19%, little better than in 2004, and the 33% of 1999 seems to have been an all-time high for the party. Or perhaps the Jokowi effect was little more than a minor reversal of the PDI-P''s decline.

In any case, they stuffed it up. At the start of the campaign, all the PDI-P TV ads featured party chairwoman Megawati's daughter Puan, who is little more than a thinner and slightly less stupid version of her mother. Perhaps the PDI-P looked at the results of its private polling and had a bit of a panic at the projected vote for Mussolini wannabee Prabowo's Gerindra Party vehicle, so hastily nominated Jokowi for the top job. By then it was too late, and the party didn't do nearly as well as Mega had hoped.

Meanwhile, the Islamist parties, having been written off by many (including me, ahem!) did better than expected. This may be the result of a very low turnout, with only the loyal supporters of the minor parties (including startup Nasdem) having bothered to turn out. Those who voted for the major parties last time may well have stayed at home in disgust, and the percentage of the vote (not the actual number of votes) of the small parties rose as a result.

And now who gets to run for the presidency. History tells us that the PDI-P will find an Islamist non-entity to run as vice-president alongside the nationalist Jokowi. But the PDI-P may well be tempted to sidle up to the National Awakening Party (PKB), which seems to have won around 9%, presumably mostly in its East Java stronghold. Despite not having a serious presidential candidate (singer Rhoma Irama?! Please!), 19+9=28. The PDI-P may well feel the need to recruit more widely, perhaps flirting with media tycoon Surya Paloh's Nasdem Party vehicle. That should produce some sympathetic coverage on Surya's Metro TV.

Meanwhile the Golkar Party may end up getting into bed with Prabowo's Gerindra Party and a few other minnows. Insanely presidency-obsessed Prabowo may settle for the vice-presidential spot if Golkar leader Bakrie provides a cast-iron promise to support Prabowo for the presidency in 2014. Bakrie will then have 5 years to think of a way to break that promise, which should be plenty of time.

Nothing, even the turnout, is certain yet, because of the strange silence from the General Elections Commission. Unlike previous years, there have been no announcements at all about the interim count - not even from the capital, where the process should be easier. All rather odd...

What will Prabowo do Now?

Abandon Hope all ye Who Vote for Him

So it's crunch time. The nastiest man in Indonesian politics is running for the top job again via his Gerindra Party vehicle, which he established when he failed to secure the presidential nomination from the Golkar Party (Wiranto and Surya Paloh also established vehicles for the same reason).

But this vicious thug must be seething with rage, because the seemingly unstoppable Jokowi, governor of Jakarta, has been nominated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). That party's ineffective leader, Megawati, seems to have realised that she could not win the presidency, having failed twice before, and having been a useless vice-president. So all Prabowo's efforts to pretend to be a friend of the farmers - presumably he didn't mention the ranch and horses he owns - may have been for nothing, because Jokowi has a track record of actually doing things from the poor even when there isn't an election coming up.

So what does Prabowo do, apart from lose. He can't really hope for the vice-presidential nomination, because nationalist parties traditionally look for Islamist VP candidates to balance things out - which is probably why Jokowi paid a visit to the head office of Muhammadiyah, Indonesia's second largest Muslim organization.

This means Prabowo can either get rid of Jokowi, or get nasty. Getting rid of Jokowi may not be easy - if anything happens to him, Prabowo will be the number one suspect - and the other parties will make sure the people know it. So that leaves getting nasty. One possible avenue for the rabidly anti-Chinese Prabowo is to remind the people of Jakarta that they will get a ethnic Chinese governor if Jokowi wins the presidency and his deputy takes over. But that's only relevant to the people of Jakarta. So what else to do? Jokowi is Muslim and always has been, and he's ethnic Javanese, so no scope for nastiness there.

Prabowo must be hoping there are some skeletons in Jokowi's closet, such as attempting a coup d'etat, kidnapping and torturing student activists or instigating riots in the capital. Oops.

Report

Name: Yudhoyono, S.B

Class: Javanese upper

Geography: His knowledge of Javanese geography enabled him to travel outside Jakarta on the day of the big demonstrations. His opportunistic traveling skills are developing well.

History: Poor performance. The recent banning of books about the 1965 army coup and Indonesia's colonization of West Papua show poor awareness of the need for truth-based history.

Economics: A good start, with the reappointment of Sri Mulyani as finance minister, but seems to have lost track of Rp6.7 trillion somewhere...

Biology: Poor awareness of animal conservation. Unable to help the defenseless anti-corruption gecko when attacked by the police crocodile.

Mathematics: Poor grasp of percentages. For example, apparently unaware that winning 60 percent of the vote in the election means there is no need for pussyfooting around.

Indonesian language: Does not really understand the meaning of words like "demokrasi", and takes criticism of him as dangerous.

Physics: Poor - appears to believe that water can be used as fuel. He was heard referring to this as "blue energy".

Overall: Yudhoyono is a promising pupil with an unfortunate tendency to become very easily distracted. His first 100 days were dominated by squabbles about corruption and a bank bailout, which meant he achieved almost nothing. Must do better.

Farewell to an Honest Politician

Abdurrahman ad-Dakhil Wahid, better known as Gus Dur, Indonesia's fourth president, died on 30 December 2009. The timing of his departure must have given those compilers of "Review of the Year" a bit of a headache as he would have missed the boat. In Indonesia, the effects were apparent in wall-to-wall TV coverage and the cancellation of a few new year fireworks displays. And of course the inevitable silly murder rumors - as if that would be worth doing now.

But he left an important legacy. Not the National Awakening Party (PKB), which resumed its civil war before he was cold in the grave, and which seems destined to shrivel away like other Indonesian political parties built around a popular figure (are you listening Megawati and SBY?). And not in any great oratory to be quoted down the years (except Gitu aja? Kok repot? [Is that all? Why such a fuss?]). Gus Dur stands out because he may have been Indonesia's only honest politician.

Despite the poor reputation of politicians, they don't lie all the time. There are three types of political lie: the factual lie (Example: Indonesian students burned down the Senen market in 1974 - it was actually the military trying to discredit protesting students); lies of opinion or belief (I really care about the people - Example: just about everything Suharto said) and lies about intentions (ditto). Of these three, in democracies, the first kind is the most risky because things get found out. If they do come to light, it's often the end of a political career (but not always). The latter two are impossible to prove either way because opinions are unprovable and because "the best laid plans of mice and men..." respectively.

But Gus Dur appears to have avoided lying almost entirely. Of course he had his flaky moments, and arguably describing the House of Representatives (DPR) as a "kindergarten" was a factual lie - they are nowhere near as well-behaved as infants - but he seems to have been honest in all he said - even if it was destined to land him in trouble.

He protested about the actions of the dictator Suharto - by direct letter on occasion. And during his presidency, he went to East Timor to apologize for Indonesia's occupation, he threw an extremist Muslim leader out of the palace halfway through an audience, he tried to have the antiquated ban on even discussing communism lifted, he visited Israel, he made Chinese New Year a public holiday and lifted the New Order racist ban on the use of Chinese characters, and he made lots of good jokes. And all the time, he said what he thought.

He paid a heavy price for speaking his mind. Not only did the Indonesian "Military" oversee his downfall from the presidency in 2002, allowing his replacement by the more malleable Megawati, but a mysterious car crash in the 1990s paralyzed his wife. Ironically, Gus Dur's own father died in a car crash - perhaps that's where the idea came from...

There are many self-serving Indonesian politicians who would do well to follow the example of Gus Dur. Don't lie about your income, origins, convictions (moral and criminal), intentions, number of wives or past. You may be surprised how much good it does you.

Bye bye Gus Dur. Indonesia is a sadder place without you.

Fux Populi

Well it's all over bar the corruption. With the bothersome necessity of the election behind them, the new faces in the House of Representatives can get down to the serious business of clawing back the money they had to spend to get there in the first place – and then some. The cash they splurged out during the election campaign was really nothing more than an interest free loan to the poor. Now it will have to be repaid in the form of bribes to the legislators funded out of services that should have been provided for the voters.

Kompas newspaper featured a scathing cartoon a few days ago. A poor boy and his father are standing amid the rubble of a post-earthquake scene. The boy asks, "why isn't your political party setting up aid posts for the victims?". "The election's over now," replies the father.

And the snouts are already nearing the trough. According to the 6 September edition of the Jakarta Globe, the inauguration of the 692 recently elected legislators will cost almost Rp35 billion, or more than Rp50 million per elected official. Of course at only Rp200 per voter, this is only the start. Mind you, it's still enough for 70 modern community health centers....

Phew!

So it's all over. The Constitutional Court decided the voters (and all the polls, before and after the vote) were right and Megawati and Jusuf Kalla and their running mates with dodgy human rights records lost.

True to past form, Megawati's supporters ran riot, starting fires in the street and causing traffic jams as is their wont whenever Mega fails to become president. Strangely Kompas newspaper failed to report the disturbances - it must have cost the PDIP - Mega's party - a fortune to keep that out of the press. Megawati herself is sulking as usual, and has said nothing beyond a grudging statement that she "understood" the verdict, which given her famously limited intellectual capacity is perhaps the most we could hope for. Her running mate Prabowo must be seething. He put so much money into the campaign (or rather his brother did) and it was all for nothing. Of course there is a chance that Prabowo will try again in 2014.

And that's not really an option for Jusuf Kalla, Megawati or Wiranto, who will be 72, 67 and 67 respectively come the next election. Kalla has said he would go back to his home town if he lost, and Mega has implied she wouldn't try again if defeated. Wiranto might have another go, but voters may scorn a two-time loser (hear that Mega?).

Given that Jusuf Kalla stood on a Golkar Party ticket against President SBY, it's possible there will be no seats for that party in SBY's new cabinet, which is presumably why current Coordinating Minister and mega-tycoon Aburizal Bakrie is frantically trying to get the party chairmanship following Kalla's resignation. After all his Epicentrum construction project is in trouble and he needs a key positon to ensure he has enough clout to keep the creditors at bay....

Meanwhile the head of the incompetent General Elections Commission (KPU), Abdul Hafiz Anshary, has refused to resign, saying that to do so would break the law as Law No. 22/2007 says KPU members only step down if they are sick, die or are fired...

The election may be over (even though the fat lady hasn't sung), but politics continues...